Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Market update: German Ifo highlights ongoing economic weakness; ECB rate pushback

German manufacturing sentiment fell further in November, and ECB’s Vasle pushes back on rate cut bets.

Source: Bloomberg

Sentiment in German business has ‘clouded over’ according to the latest Ifo report with companies ‘less satisfied with their current business’, and ‘more skeptical about the first half of 2024.’

In manufacturing, the Business Climate Index fell noticeably. Companies assessed their current business situation as significantly worse. Their expectations also grew more pessimistic. Energy-intensive industries are having a particularly tough time. Order books continue to shrink overall.

Service sector improves, trade setback, construction declines

In the service sector, the business climate improved slightly. Service providers were more satisfied with their current business. They also reported less skepticism in their outlook for the coming six months. In restaurants and catering, the business situation improved, but expectations took a nosedive.

In trade, the business climate suffered a setback. Companies assessed their current situation as markedly worse. Their expectations also darkened. For retailers, holiday trade is disappointing this year. In construction, the Business Climate Index fell to its lowest level since September 2005. Companies assessed their current situation as worse. Moreover, roughly one in two companies are expecting business to deteriorate further in the months ahead.

Economic calendar

Source: DailyFX

ECB's Bostjan Vasle rejects rate cut expectations

ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle today continued the central bank’s pushback against current interest rate expectations, saying that market forecast for rate cuts are premature and ‘inconsistent with the stance appropriate to return inflation to target.’ Current market pricing shows the first 25bp rate cut fully priced in at the April meeting with a total of 150 basis points of cuts seen through 2024.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD is trading in a tight 40 pip range so far today in quiet market conditions. On Tuesday we have the final Euro Area inflation reading – forecast at 3.6% vs 4.2% prior -while on Friday we have the Fed’s preferred inflation report, core PCE, released at 13:30 UK. Both releases have the ability to move EUR/USD in either direction. Initial support for the pair starts with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.08645 followed by a prior level of horizontal support at 1.0787. Resistance at last Wednesday’s 1.1017 high followed by 1.1076.

EUR/USD daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

Discover how to trade the markets

Learn how indices work – and discover the wide range of markets you can trade CFDs on – with IG Academy's free ’introducing the financial markets’ course.

Put learning into action

Try out what you’ve learned in this index strategy article risk-free in your demo account.

Ready to trade indices?

Put the lessons in this article to use in a live account – upgrading is quick and easy.

  • Get fixed spreads from 1 point on the FTSE 100, 1.2 on the Germany 40, and 0.4 on the US 500
  • Protect your capital with risk management tools
  • Trade more 24-hour markets than any other provider

Inspired to trade?

Put your new knowledge into practice. Log in to your account now.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.