The Great Barrier Reef dies due to climate change

In the international climate process, vulnerable countries, particularly Pacific islands, have been pushing large emitters of greenhouse gases to directly compensate them for loss and damage from climate change. A large-scale impact on a developed country such as Australia could potentially shift the politics of this from a primary developed/developing country division to a more cross-cutting one, strengthening the issue’s traction in the UN process.

The costs of reversing global warming are far too high, diffuse, and future-loaded for contemporary politicians to risk the electoral and economic costs. There will be some sad TV documentaries and stories, but that will pass; a much greater economic crisis driven by global warming is necessary to push major change. I just don’t see this as a big deal. Most of the costs of global warming, such as this, or the melting of the polar ice cap, are now baked in. There are ecological catastrophes to be sure, but they are slow moving and the costs future-loaded. That gives a lot of time to adjust and for selfish current generations to push costs onto their kids, which they will inevitably do. Few democratic politicians will risk the costs for the major lifestyle adjustments global warming demands. So the Reef is already doomed and will attract media attention, because it is so high profile. But nothing will come of it.

The effect on tourism and fisheries would be severe locally, but probably not of broader significance. Innovative biotech companies are increasingly looking for medical compounds in ocean biodiversity and could suffer.

There would be a minor hit to Australia’s tourism industry.

There is a groundswell of climate-based litigation popping up around the world, with both governments and companies being sued under various kinds of laws for inaction on, or culpability in, climate change. These suits will continue to grow and could have massive effects on the sector, akin to legal actions against tobacco. A Great Barrier Reef die-off would introduce a new set of plaintiffs, such as fishermen and tour companies, and potentially even the Australian or Queensland governments.

You might see a slightly more insular approach from Australia if you had a reduction in tourism but I think it’s something that you shouldn’t read too much into. Given the broad nature of Australian tourism, people go to the Great Barrier Reef but you go to Australia for other things as well, so I think it’s easy to overstate the major risks in that sense.