Australia 200 afternoon report: 11 March 2025

The Australia 200 trades 61 points (-0.78%) lower at 7900 as of 3.15pm (AEDT).

Australia 200 plunges amid tariff uncertainty

The Australia 200 plunged 143 points (1.80%) to an intraday low of 7818.3 in early trading before dip buyers emerged, encouraged by a rebound in United States (US) equity futures.

At this morning's low, the Australia 200 had fallen almost 9% below its mid-February 8615 high. A pullback of this magnitude seemed unimaginable just four weeks ago. However, as circumstances have evolved, so has the market's response.

President Trump's tariffs have been implemented more quickly and broadly than anticipated. Most bank analysts had expected a more gradual increase in tariffs on China and did not anticipate tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Although the tariffs on Mexico and Canada may be temporary, reciprocal tariffs across US trading partners are now a given.

US recession probability rises

Today's market turmoil was further fuelled by comments from President Trump in a Fox News interview. When asked about the potential for a recession, Trump did not dismiss the possibility, saying, 'I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big.' His comments came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that the US economy might face a 'detox period' for rebalancing.

According to US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the chance of a US recession over the next 12 months has increased from 15% to 20%. If President Trump and his administration continue in the manner they have started, it won't be long until it's a coin toss closer to 50%.

Australia 200 stocks

Technology sector

Returning to the local bourse, tech stocks were hit hard, taking their lead from heavy falls for the US Tech 100 on Wall Street overnight.

• DroneShield dived 11.48% to $0.90
• Life360 plummeted 8.30% to $21.09
• Block, the owner of Afterpay, fell 6.5% to $88.03
• TechnologyOne decreased by 6% to $27.15

Consumer discretionary sector

Despite a strong 4% increase in the Westpac consumer sentiment index for March, reaching 95.9 - its highest level in three years thanks to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut last month - consumer-facing stocks on the Australia 200 were friendless.

• Baby Bunting dropped 7.16% to $1.75
• Temple & Webster fell 4.15% to $16.16
• Kogan declined 3.78% to $4.58
• JB Hi-Fi edged 2.62% lower to $88.95

Financial sector

The Australia 200 financial sector is set to record its sixth straight session of falls. At today's low point, it had fallen 13% below its mid-February peak.

• Macquarie fell 2.62% to $202.82
• AMP lost 2.31% to $1.27
• Bendigo Bank dropped 1.25% to $10.24
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) decreased by 0.54% to $147.31

In contrast:

• National Australia Bank (NAB) gained 0.12% to $34.11
• Westpac rose 0.89% to $30.67
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) added 1.14% to $29.04

Energy sector

The energy sector has gained despite the price of crude oil trading below $66, straining under the weight of US tariff uncertainty, US growth concerns, the potential lifting of US sanctions on Russia, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) opting to increase output.

• Woodside Energy rose 1.22% to $23.19
• Santos added 0.9% to $6.16
• Beach Energy rose 0.54% to $1.40

Australia 200 technical analysis

The Australia 200 sliced through a number of key support levels last week including:

• Multi-month trend channel support at 8150
• The 200-day moving average at 8130
• A band of horizontal support at 8060 – 8050 from the lows of late 2024
• The psychologically important 8000 level

The ease with which these levels broke left those looking to buy the dip mainly watching from the sidelines. This appears to be the right course of action until the Australia 200 hits 7600. Alternatively, investors might wait until the index returns to the safety of the trend channel above 8200.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 March 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}