EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY await US inflation data
Outlook on EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY ahead of Tuesday’s US October CPI data.
EUR/USD awaits US CPI print
EUR/USD still range trades below last week’s near two-month high at $1.0756 but does so above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0638 ahead of Tuesday’s US consumer price inflation (CPI) data release. Analysts expect core inflation in October to remain at 4.1% but the year-on-year (YoY) headline inflation to slip from 3.7% to 3.3%.
As long as the 55-day SMA underpins, the medium-term bullish trend remains bullish. Were it to be fallen through on a daily chart closing basis, however, the late September high at $1.0618 could be revisited.
For the current gradual rise to continue a daily chart close above Thursday’s high at $1.0725 needs to be seen. Were it at Monday’s high at $1.0756 to be exceeded, the 200-day SMA at $1.0803 would be targeted, together with the $1.0834 July low.
AUD/USD tries to short-term level out
AUD/USD’s sell-off from its near three-month high at $0.6523 following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hike by 25 basis-points (bp) to 4.35%, which was seen by analysts as the last one in this cycle, took the cross to last week’s low at $0.6339. Above it, the currency pair is trying to stabilize.
The 55-day SMA at $0.6392 may act as immediate resistance, together with the late October high at $0.6399. If overcome, the 11 October high at $0.6445 could be reached as well.
Below last week’s low at $0.6339 lies major support between the early and late October lows at $0.6286 to $0.6271.
USD/JPY trades close to the October 2022 peak
USD/JPY has risen on six consecutive days and got within a whisker of its October 2022 peak at ¥151.95 as Japan inflation nears a three-year low. Monday’s data showed that producer prices in Japan rose by 0.8% YoY in October which was the lowest inflation since a deflation in February 2021 and marked the tenth straight month of a slowdown.
Since the cross flirts with the October 2022 peak, the risk of Bank of Japan (BoJ) currency intervention remains high.
The one-week uptrend line at ¥151.63 currently underpins USD/JPY. Below it minor support can be found at the 26 October high at ¥150.78. Further down lies the psychological ¥150.00 mark.
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