Fed and BoE December meetings: rate cuts, inflation targets, and market opportunities

Federal Reserve meeting preview

The Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its December meeting with markets pricing in a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut. This marks a continued shift in policy stance, following the aggressive hiking cycle of recent years. Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have reinforced market expectations of a rate cut. His support hinges on incoming inflation and employment data aligning with current projections.

The Fed’s target range currently stands at 4.50% to 4.75%, with the anticipated cut potentially bringing rates to 4.25% to 4.50%. Markets will closely scrutinise the Fed’s updated economic projections and dot plot for insights into the pace and extent of potential rate cuts throughout 2025.

Bank of England's challenging outlook

The Bank of England (BoE) faces a more complex decision-making environment, with UK inflation proving more persistent than in other major economies. October’s consumer prices index (CPI) reading of 2.3% exceeded the BoE’s 2% target, suggesting the battle against inflation is not yet won. This complicates the path to monetary policy easing.

Most analysts expect the BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 4.75% in December. The decision reflects a careful balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) voting pattern will be crucial, as recent meetings have shown a three-way split between members advocating holds, hikes and cuts.

Market implications

​Currency markets are likely to show heightened volatility during both meetings. The forex trading space could see significant moves, particularly in GBP/USD pairs. ​Stock markets typically react strongly to central bank decisions, with the FTSE 100 often showing sensitivity to BoE announcements.

​Interest rate-sensitive sectors, including banking and real estate, may experience increased volatility. ​Traders should also monitor bond markets, as futures trading volumes often spike around central bank meetings.

Economic indicators to watch

​Market participants should monitor upcoming inflation data, as these figures could influence both central banks' decisions.

Employment statistics, particularly wage growth data, will be crucial. Strong wage pressures could deter both banks from aggressive policy easing. ​Housing market data deserves attention, given its sensitivity to interest rates. The commodities trading sector often reacts to these indicators. ​Global economic data, especially from China and Europe, could impact decision-making at both central banks.

Looking ahead to 2025

​Both central banks will likely provide guidance on their 2025 policy paths, with markets particularly focused on the timing of further rate cuts. ​The divergence between Fed and BoE policy could create interesting trading opportunities across currency pairs and stock indices.

​Global economic conditions, particularly inflation trends and growth indicators, will shape monetary policy decisions throughout 2025. ​Traders should prepare for potential market volatility as policy paths become clearer.