Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Ahead of the game: 9 September 2024

US market volatility and mixed economic data impact the ASX 200, revealing Australia's slowest growth since the early 1990s.

Stocks Source: Adobe images

ASX 200 derailed by Wall Street and RBA rate stance

US equity markets fell this week, with September living up to its reputation for volatility. Economic data offered a mixed view of the economy ahead of a key non-farm payrolls report.

On the home front, the ASX 200 snapped its three-week winning streak, impacted by Wall Street's instability and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) firm stance against near-term interest rate cuts. This happened despite national accounts showing that Australia’s economy grew at its slowest rate since the early 1990s recession.

The week that was: highlights

  • Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly to 47.2 in August 2024 from 46.8 in July, yet it fell short of market expectations of 47.5
  • ISM Services PMI increased to 51.5 in August from 51.4 prior, above market expectations, looking for a fall to 51.1
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings fell to 7.673 million from a downwardly revised 7.910 million in June—falling short of expectations of 8.1 million
  • The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report for August showed only 99,000 new jobs created—the weakest since January 2021
  • US weekly initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, beating the consensus of 230,000
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in August from 49.8 prior
  • In Australia, Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.2% for an annual rate of 1.0%, the slowest pace of annual growth since the early 1990s recession
  • Crude oil fell 5.82% this week to $69.27 on demand concerns
  • Gold gained 0.50% this week to $2516, consolidating below its $2531 record high
  • Wall Street's gauge of fear, the Volatility index (VIX), increased to 19.89 from 14.78 the prior week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

  • AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, 10 September at 10.30am AEST)
  • AU: National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence (Thursday, 12 September at 11.30am AEST)
  • NZ: NZ Business NZ PMI (Friday, 13 September at 8.30am AEST)

China & Japan

  • CN: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) (Monday, 9 September at 11.30am AEST)
  • CN: Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) and House Price Index (Saturday, 14 September at 12pm AEST)

United States

  • US: CPI (Wednesday, 11 September at 10.30pm AEST)
  • US: PPI (Thursday, 12 September at 10.30pm AEST)
  • US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday, 14 September at 12.00am AEST)

Europe & United Kingdom

  • UK: Unemployment Rate (Tuesday, 10 September at 4.00pm AEST)
  • UK: GDP (Wednesday, 11 September at 4.00pm AEST)
  • EA: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision (Thursday, 12 September at 10.45pm AEST)
Indices Source: Adobe images
Indices Source: Adobe images

Key events for the week ahead

  • CN

CPI and PPI

Monday, 9 September at 11.30am AEST

In July, China’s CPI rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% year-on-year (YoY), driven by a surge in pork prices. However, core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, increased by only 0.4%, below expectations.

This indicates that pricing pressures are not broad-based, continuing to highlight weak domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. The ongoing real estate slump was also reflected in a steeper-than-expected drop in rental prices.

For August, China’s consumer prices are expected to register a 0.7% YoY, up from the previous 0.5%. However, producer prices are forecast to contract more sharply at -1.4% YoY, compared to the previous contraction of 0.8%. Apart from the headline numbers, markets will watch for any broad-based price increases that could validate a potential economic recovery.

China's CPI and PPI chart

China's CPI and PPI chart Source: Refinitiv
China's CPI and PPI chart Source: Refinitiv
  • AU

Westpac consumer confidence

Tuesday, 10 September at 10.30am AEST

In August, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index jumped by 2.8%, reaching a six-month high of 85.0. This was a significant rebound from July’s 1.1% decline, far surpassing market expectations of a modest 0.5% rise.

The recovery to the highest sentiment reading since February was driven by the visible effects of tax cuts and fiscal measures, along with easing concerns over RBA interest rate hikes. The ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub-index surged by 11.7% to a two-year high of 70.9, while the outlook for family finances over the next 12 months rose 5.1% to 96.8.

The preliminary expectation for September is for a fallback to 83. The interest rate market shows an 85% chance of a 25 basis points (bp) rate cut in December, with a cumulative 57 bp of RBA rate cuts priced by April 2025.

Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index chart

Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index chart Source: TradingEconomics
Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index chart Source: TradingEconomics
  • US

CPI

Wednesday, 11 September at 10.30pm AEST

In July, the annual headline inflation rate in the US cooled for the fourth straight month, dipping to 2.9%. This marked the lowest level since March 2021, down from 3.0% in June and below the 3.0% expected. . The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, continued its decline, hitting a more than three-year low of 3.2% in July 2024. This matched market expectations and was down from 3.3% in the previous month.

For August, the preliminary expectation is for annual headline inflation to ease to 2.6% and for core inflation to stay steady at 3.2% YoY. The rates market is pricing in 35 bps of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts for September, with a cumulative 109 bps of Fed rate cuts anticipated by year-end.

US core inflation annual rate chart

US core inflation annual rate chart Source: TradingEconomics
US core inflation annual rate chart Source: TradingEconomics
  • EA

ECB interest rate decision

Thursday, 12 September at 10.45pm AEST

In June, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, lowering its deposit rate to 3.75% after expressing greater confidence in easing inflation. The ECB then kept rates on hold at the last meeting, indicating that the September meeting would be ‘live’.

Looking ahead, market expectations are fully priced in for the ECB to ease rates further by another 25 bps this month. Slowing wage growth last quarter has calmed policymakers' concerns around rising labour costs, reinforced by a sharp drop in Eurozone inflation to a three-year low of 2.2% in August.

Market participants will be on the lookout for any signals regarding the policy outlook, with expectations still divided on whether further back-to-back rate cuts will be necessary through the rest of the year. Fresh economic projections from the ECB will be key; any downward revisions to growth or inflation data could strengthen the case for faster rate cuts.

ECB interest rate chart

ECB interest rate chart Source: TradingEconomics
ECB interest rate chart Source: TradingEconomics

The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

React to volatility on commodity markets

Trade commodity futures, as well as 27 commodity markets with no fixed expiries.

  • Wide range of popular and niche metals, energies and softs
  • Spreads from 0.3 pts on Spot Gold, 2 pts on Spot Silver and 2.8 pts on Oil
  • View continuous charting, backdated for up to five years

See opportunity on a commodity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Try a risk-free trade
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • Get spreads from just 0.3 points on Spot Gold
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.