ASX 200 afternoon report: 2 January 2025

The ASX 200 trades 40 points (0.49%) higher at 8199 as of 3.00pm AEDT.

The ASX 200 has started 2025 on the front foot, recovering from a difficult end to 2024 that saw the index fall 3.28% in December, effectively erasing November's 3.38% gain.

Doubts cast on Santa Claus rally

Notably, four of the last seven Decembers have now ended lower for the ASX 200, raising serious questions about the reliability of the Santa Claus rally, a traditionally integral part of the trader’s calendar.

• December 2024: -3.28%
• December 2022: -3.37%
• December 2019: -2.36%
• December 2018: -0.37%

Positive January trends

Interestingly, in recent years, after declining in December, the ASX 200 has historically rebounded strongly the following January, providing hope for a positive start to 2025.

• January 2023: +6.22%
• January 2020: +4.98%
• January 2019: +3.87%

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

Last year, the energy sector fell a challenging 20.02%. However, with crude oil rising above $72 today for the first time in two months, energy stocks were keen to recover.

• Beach Energy increased by 1.97% to $1.42
• Viva Energy rose 1.52% to $2.67
• Woodside Energy advanced 1.48% to $24.96
• Santos climbed 1.27% to $6.76

Materials sector

The materials sector, which lost a hefty 17.72% in 2024, began 2025 with solid gains.

• Fortescue surged 2.96% higher to $18.87
• Mineral Resources gained 1.66% to $34.82
• BHP rose 0.94% to $39.91
• Rio Tinto added 0.5% to $118.02

Consumer discretionary sector

On the other hand, the consumer discretionary sector, which surged 20.10% in 2024, eased lower today.

• Nick Scali slipped 1.8% to $14.74
• Baby Bunting lost 1.49% to $1.66
• Kogan fell 1.61% to $6.11
• Myer declined 0.81% to $1.22

Banking sector

Although the major banks appear expensive by most metrics, they remain a preferred choice for offshore funds seeking exposure to Australia while avoiding the troubled Chinese economy and Trump's tariffs.

• National Australia Bank (NAB) added 0.6% to $37.32
• Westpac rose 0.43% to $32.46
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) gained 0.38% to $153.84
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) edged 0.02% higher to $28.58

ASX 200 technical analysis

Provided the ASX 200 remains above trend channel support and the support of the 200-day moving average at the 8000 - 7980 area, there is potential for the index to retest the 8514 high.

Aware that if the support band at 8000 - 7980 gives way on a sustained basis, the August 7628 low comes into focus.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 2 January 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}