ASX 200 afternoon report: 26 November 2024

The ASX 200 trades 38 points (-0.45%) lower at 8380 as of 3.25pm AEDT.

Trump’s tariff strategy impacts markets

Markets received an early look at the potential economic landscape under Trump 2.0, as the president-elect outlined his tariff plans for imports from Mexico, Canada, and China via social media. During his first term, Trump’s more than 25,000 tweets often centred on 'tariff' and 'trade war,' significantly influencing market sentiment and creating ripples across global markets, including the ASX 200.

New tariffs and their implications

Today, Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, effective on his first day in office. These measures aim to address migration and drug import concerns in the United States (US).

Before the election, Trump suggested tariffs on Chinese imports could rise to 60% or higher if he was re-elected. Currently, 60% of imports from China are already subject to tariffs averaging about 17%.

Today’s announcement could be seen as risk-positive rather than negative. A 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods would bring the average rate to 27%, significantly lower than the 60% floated during Trump’s campaign and below the market consensus of 40%.

ASX 200 stocks

Energy stocks

The price of crude oil fell 3.1% overnight to $69.07 on reports that Israel and Hezbollah are moving towards a ceasefire. The fall in oil also followed reports that Trump's transition team will prioritise increasing US oil and ​natural gas production from day one of the new presidency.

• Beach Energy lost 3.86% to $1.24
• Santos fell 3.57% to $6.61
• Woodside Energy slid 3.37% to $24.50
• Ampol declined by 1.43% to $28.19

Banking sector

The big banks have fallen as Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's (APRA) decision yesterday to maintain the mortgage serviceability buffer of 3% continues to weigh.

• CBA fell 2.97% to $155.38
• ANZ lost 1.34% to $31.40
• NAB declined by 1.1% to $39.18
• Westpac slipped by 1.05% to $33.06

Mining sector

The iron ore price has continued its fightback, climbing above $103 in trading today on the Singapore futures exchange.

• Rio Tinto gained 0.81% to $117.66
• Fortescue edged 0.19% higher to $18.41
• BHP slipped 0.47% to $40.02
• Mineral Resources fell 0.24% to $33.38

Gold stocks

Gold finished lower overnight at $2626 (-3.29%), undercut by reports that Israel and Hezbollah are nearing a ceasefire and Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury secretary. Bessent favours reducing the budget deficit to a more sustainable level, which reduces gold's safe haven appeal.

• Evolution Mining fell 2.59% to $4.89
• Regis Resources lost 2.1% to $2.56
• Perseus Mining declined by 2.1% to $2.57
• Northern Star Resources slipped 2% to $17.25

ASX 200 technical analysis

Today's retreat in the ASX 200 has left yesterday's 8462 high exposed as another potential false breakout. While this represents a setback to the local market's upside prospects, this week's rejection is not viewed as significant unless the ASX 200 loses support at 8300.

It is important for the ASX 200 to achieve a sustained break above the trend channel resistance, currently near 8400, to confirm that a move higher toward 8600 is underway

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 26 November 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}