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Market update: Dow Jones, S&P 500 pullback may accelerate as retail traders become bullish

Dow Jones, S&P 500 have been weakening of late; retail traders still mostly short, but upside bets rise and this could leave Wall Street further vulnerable ahead.

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have been aiming cautiously lower in recent days. In response, retail traders have started to increase their upside exposure. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator.

Dow Jones sentiment outlook: Bearish

According to IGCS, only about 27% of retail traders are net-long the Dow Jones. Since the majority of them are biased lower, this still hints that prices may continue climbing down the road.

However, upside exposure has increased by 7.14% and 8.65% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in sentiment warn that the Dow Jones might soon reverse lower.

Wall Street client positioning chart

Source: DailyFX

Dow Jones technical analysis

On the daily chart, the Dow Jones was unable to surpass the February 2022 high of 25,752, and it now appears that the next move could be a downward turn. This possibility is reinforced by the presence of negative RSI divergence, indicating a diminishing upside momentum.

The 20-day Moving Average (MA) serves as immediate support, and if the price falls below it, it will reveal the ascending support from October.

Dow Jones daily chart

Source: TradingView

S&P 500 sentiment outlook: Bearish

According to IGCS, about 36% of retail traders are net-long the S&P 500. Since most of them are biased to the downside, this still suggests that prices may continue rising down the road. But, upside exposure has increased by 9.42% and 23.19% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively.

With that in mind, recent changes in positioning warn that the S&P 500 may soon reverse lower despite overall exposure.

US 500 client positioning chart

Source: DailyFX

S&P 500 technical analysis

The S&P 500 has fallen for three consecutive days, weakening about 1.5%. That marks the worst three-day period since early March. Prices also broke under and confirmed a push through the 20-day Moving Average. That has exposed immediate support at 4446 which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day MA. Clearing under the latter opens the door to a stronger bearish technical bias.

S&P 500 daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

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