Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Gold price outlook: Fed’s speakers and NFP report eyed as XAU takes cues from equity market

Another round of hawkish Fedspeak turned markets cautious, including bullion and gold prices to track alongside equity moves directed by FOMC rate hike bets.

Source: Bloomberg

Gold prices fell around 0.5% on Wednesday, halting a rally that started last week and took the yellow metal nearly 6% higher after touching the lowest levels since April 2020. Bulls benefited from a revival in market sentiment that saw traders pile into equities while ditching the safe-haven US dollar. Bond traders helped drag yields lower, adding another tailwind for the non-interest-bearing asset.

Those trends weakened on Wednesday. US equity indexes, despite a valiant intraday effort, ended the day with losses. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed 0.2% lower, while the Nasdaq-100 Index posted a 0.08% loss. And if it weren’t for a surge in crude oil prices that boosted the energy sector, the selloff would have been much more pronounced. The S&P 500 GICS energy sector gained 2.08%. Eight of the index’s eleven sectors were negative.

For now, gold prices hold a healthy correlation with US equity indexes, which are largely at the whims of Federal Reserve rate hike bets. That said, XAU traders may want to take their cues from the S&P 500, as I proposed last month. Asia-Pacific stocks, outside of China, are bucking the overnight bearish trend. That is giving XAU a small lift as prices trade just above 1720.

Equity markets may not have much steam left. The Federal Reserve’s Mary Daly stated, “we are resolute at raising the interest rate into restrictive territory…” when asked if the Fed would change its rate path in a Bloomberg TV interview. One of the more traditionally dovish members, Ms. Daly’s comments stand as a stark warning to traders who appear giddy to jump the gun on signs of easing.

That isn’t stopping rate traders from pricing in a pivot, possibly as soon as May, according to Fed funds futures. Overnight index swaps are even more generous, pricing in a small chance for a cut by next March. The US non-farm payrolls report due out Friday can sway those bets significantly, and Fed speakers Mester and Kashkari are scheduled to speak on Thursday. That said, it may be a volatile next 48 hours for markets, including gold prices.

Gold technical outlook

Prices are stalling at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and a level of support turned resistance stemming from April 2021. A pullback would aim for support that sits around the 1680 level before prices threaten the September low. Alternatively, a break higher brings the August high at 1807 into focus. The MACD oscillator is showing positive momentum as it tracks higher towards its centerline.

XAU/USD daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

Start trading forex today

Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market

  • Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse with clear, fast charts
  • Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps

See an FX opportunity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.