Here’s how CSL is preparing for the next pandemic

If and when H5N1 jumps species to humans – irrespective of how virulent it is – the WHO may once again recommend countries begin stockpiling vaccines.

Increased discussion about bird flu from WHO

At the World Health Organisation (WHO) meeting on 8 February, the head of the WHO discussed just four points: the earthquake in Turkey, breastfeeding, cholera in Syria and the rapid spread of H5N1 across several mammal species.

While the H1N5 virus (bird flu) appears to be a low threat to humans in its current variants, its impact on the global bird population is staggering. According to a report on ABC science, around half a billion poultry have been killed by the virus or culled.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), human infections have been reported in 19 countries since 2003 with a mortality rate of 56%. A spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America indicated that a more likely scenario is that it mutates and becomes highly contagious and less deadly amongst humans and creates a pandemic.

It hasn’t yet made it to Australia, but it’s likely just a matter of time, given that some migratory birds can carry avian flu.

H5N1 is spreading amongst several species of mammals

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), 121 mammals have tested positive for H5N1, including foxes, bobcats, opossums, raccoons, seals, skunks, coyotes, bears and dolphins.

In Spain, 50,000 minks were culled when an outbreak in a farm raised fears that it could spread to humans. This appears to be a similar pattern to the minks killed during the Covid pandemic. In November 2020, Denmark culled 17 million minks after they spread the virus to humans.

While these cullings seem rather drastic, they were likely done out of an abundance of caution.

Governments may ‘over-purchase’ vaccines

Politicians and health bureaucrats ordered significantly more vaccines than necessary based on the philosophy that it’s better to have too much than to fall short. For example, the Australian government purchased 255 million vaccine shots – around 10 shots per person. Less than a quarter have been administered. If the same sentiment persists ahead of the next pandemic – possibly H5N1 – we could see another huge stock-up in vaccines out of an abundance of caution.

Based on recent history, at the first whiff of a pandemic, governments are likely to finance vaccine development and pre-order multiple vaccines from vaccine manufacturers. One of the leading beneficiaries of this would be CSL – the organisation that developed the original H1N1 bird flu vaccine in 1918.

CSL is positioned to profit

Commonwealth Serum Laboratories (CSL) appears well-placed to profit from early preventative action by the WHO and national governments.

CSL developed a vaccine for Covid but had to withdraw it from trials after it caused subjects to test positive for HIV. CSL appears to have learned its lesson and has now positioned itself ahead of the next pandemic.

CSL has two vaccines ready for H5N1. AUDENZ is FDA-approved for people at risk of H5N1. Foclivia is a ‘Pandemic preparedness vaccine’ for use after the WHO declares a pandemic.

It’s unlikely any mass call-up, purchase and rollout of H5N1 vaccines would deliver CSL anything close to the $100 billion profit and $31 billion profit Pfizer reaped in 2022. However, for CSL, which made $2.3 billion last year, even just 5% of Pfizer’s profit would be a significant jump.

The question appears to be when, rather than if, this happens; on 20 February Sir Jeremy Farrar, a former member of Sage and Chief Scientist designate of the WHO, called on governments to stock up on bird flu vaccines urgently as H5N1 posed the biggest current pandemic threat to the world after Covid.

Getting the timing right for any trade on CSL may be crucial.

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