Market update: analysis & outlook on gold, silver, oil, S&P 500 and EUR/USD

Gold price forecast

Retail trading activity reveals a net-short bias towards gold, with the ratio of bearish to bullish positions currently sitting at 1.47 to 1 as of late afternoon on Tuesday.

In aggregate, bullish bets on the precious metal are 9.67% lower than yesterday and 12.80% below prevailing levels one week ago. Meanwhile, bearish wagers are 0.31% down compared to the previous session and 13.15% higher from last week.

Our analysis often adopts a contrarian stance on crowd sentiment. With that in mind, the current net-short positioning suggests continued upward potential for gold prices in the near term.

Silver forecast

Retail trader data shows 81.60% of traders are net-long silver, with the ratio of long to short at 4.44 to 1.

The number of traders net-long is 7.08% lower than yesterday and 12.23% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.86% higher than yesterday and 21.81% higher than last week.

From a contrarian perspective to crowd sentiment, silver's overwhelmingly bullish positioning among retail investors raises the possibility that prices will soon begin a downward trajectory.

US crude oil forecast

IG proprietary client data from today shows that 69.87% of retail investors are net-long US crude oil, with the ratio of bullish to bearish positions currently standing at 2.32 to 1.

Upon further examination, the number of traders net-long has decreased by 8.58% compared to yesterday and 17.45% relative to last week. Meanwhile, net-short positions have increased by 17.58% from the previous session, though they have fallen slightly by 0.48% from last week’s levels.

We often adopt a contrarian stance towards crowd sentiment, and the prevailing net-long position among traders hints at a possible decline in oil prices in the near future. This observation underscores the importance of leveraging market insights to navigate potential market movements effectively.

S&P 500 forecast

Retail trader data shows 33.09% of traders are net-short, resulting in a bearish to bullish ratio of 2.02 to 1. Comparatively, the number of traders holding net-short positions has increased by 4.42% since yesterday but has slightly decreased by 0.03% from last week.

On the other side of the coin, the number of traders holding net-long positions has risen by 2.89% since yesterday and by 4.76% compared to last week.

Taking a contrarian approach to prevailing sentiment, the current net-short stance of among the retail crowd implies that there might be room for S&P 500 to continue their upward trajectory.

EUR/USD forecast

IG retail client data from today shows 43.27% of traders are net-short, with the present ratio of bullish to bearish bets standing at 1.31 to 1.

Taken together, bullish positioning is down 0.73% versus the previous session and 19.44% lower than levels registered last week. Meanwhile, the number of traders net-short is 2.10% lower than yesterday and 0.28% higher than last week.

Our strategy often diverges from prevailing sentiment, and the current net-short positioning of traders indicates that EUR/USD may encounter minimal resistance on the upside.

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