Oil market outlook 2025: what to expect for crude prices
Global oil markets face potential oversupply in 2025 as non-OPEC+ production grows. Here's what traders need to know about price forecasts and market dynamics.
Supply and demand outlook for 2025
The International Energy Agency projects global oil supply will exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day in 2025. This forecast assumes OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts throughout the period.
Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the United States, Canada, and Guyana, are expected to drive the surplus through increased production. This additional output could challenge OPEC+'s ability to maintain market balance.
The post-covid-19 pandemic demand rebound has largely played out, with growth rates expected to moderate. China's economic slowdown remains a key concern for demand projections, potentially limiting upside pressure on prices.
Economic headwinds in major economies could further impact consumption patterns, with the transition to cleaner energy technologies also affecting demand growth rates in developed markets.
Price forecasts and market expectations
Major investment banks have provided conservative price outlooks for 2025. Trading commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast Brent crude oil averaging $76.00 per barrel.
J.P. Morgan takes a more bearish stance, projecting Brent at $73.00 per barrel and WTI at $64.00. These forecasts reflect expectations of ample market supply and moderate demand growth.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates increasing global inventories will pressure prices. Their analysis suggests Brent could average $74.00 per barrel in the latter half of 2025.
These projections indicate a relatively stable price environment, though geopolitical events and OPEC+ decisions could create significant volatility.
Impact on energy trading strategies
Oil trading strategies in 2025 will need to account for potential supply surpluses and price pressures. Risk management becomes crucial in this environment.
Traders should monitor OPEC+ compliance with production agreements, as any breakdown in unity could accelerate price declines. The group's response to market oversupply will be critical.
Technical analysis of key support and resistance levels will help identify entry and exit points. The $70.00-80.00 range for Brent crude appears significant based on current forecasts.
Commodity trading platforms offer various tools to manage exposure to oil price movements, including stop losses and limit orders.
Key factors to watch
Geopolitical developments remain crucial for oil markets. U.S. energy policy changes could significantly impact global supply dynamics and price movements.
Chinese demand growth will be essential for market balance. Any significant economic stimulus measures could boost consumption and support prices.
The pace of energy transition and electric vehicle adoption could affect demand projections. However, the impact may be limited in the 2025 timeframe.
Trading signals and market indicators will help traders navigate these complex dynamics.
How to trade oil markets in 2025
How to trade oil successfully requires understanding both technical and fundamental factors. Start by thoroughly researching market conditions. Use technical analysis tools and economic calendars to time your trades. Keep updated with OPEC+ meetings and major economic data releases.
Open a demo account to practice your trading strategy without risking real capital.
Risk management considerations
Always use stop loss orders to protect against adverse price movements. The oil market's volatility requires careful position sizing.
Consider using trading alerts to stay informed of significant price movements and market developments.
Diversification across different energy markets can help manage risk. Don't concentrate all positions in a single commodity.
Keep abreast of market news and analyst reports to adjust your strategy as conditions change.
The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.
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