The Trade: ASX 200 faces seasonal rally, bitcoin and oil show volatility
Explore the latest market trends as the ASX 200 navigates global influences, Nasdaq 100 hits record highs, Bitcoin consolidates near $100,000, and oil remains range-bound amid geopolitical tensions.
(AI video summary)
This video was created on 4 December for IG audiences by ausbiz.
ASX 200 faces resistance amid global factors
The ASX 200 is experiencing a grind higher, closing at 8465 after a 0.4% drop, reflecting mixed global influences. IG's Tony Sycamore from attributes this to strong US market performance, supported by expectations of a December rate cut, juxtaposed with geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Sycamore notes that while Australian banks and resource stocks have performed well this year—up 35% year-to-date in financials—finding the next catalyst for significant gains in the ASX 200 remains a challenge. However, the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" could sustain upward momentum into early January.
Nasdaq leads the US rally
US equity markets continue to thrive, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching record highs. Sycamore highlights the robust economic performance in the US, describing it as "almost Goldilocks." With no apparent headwinds, the Nasdaq is projected to push towards 21,500, barring a drop below 20,315, which could signal trouble.
Bitcoin consolidation
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in focus after an impulsive rally in November, hovering at $95,943. Sycamore expects a consolidation phase, with a potential pullback to $90,000 providing a buying opportunity. He emphasises the psychological significance of the $100,000 milestone and views any corrective dips as part of a broader bullish trend into 2025.
Oil range-bound amidst geopolitical tensions
Oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war, influenced by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) production cuts and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East. Sycamore predicts crude oil will remain range-bound between $66 and $72.50 until clearer direction emerges.
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