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US dollar technical outlook: baht, dollar, peso, rupiah

US dollar’s rise against ASEAN currencies slowed last week; the Thai baht and Philippine peso remain vulnerable and the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah show resilience.

Source: Bloomberg

Thai baht technical outlook – bullish

The US dollar extended gains against the Thai baht this past week. This brought USD/THB to the 2015 high at 36.668. However, the pair was unable to hold a close above it. Prices instead left behind a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. This is a sign of indecision, but it is too early to take it for granted. Further downside confirmation could hint at a turning point. A confirmatory close under the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could be an increasingly bearish sign. Otherwise, further upside from here would place the focus on the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 37.458.

USD/THB daily chart

Source: TradingView

Philippine peso technical outlook – slightly bullish

The US dollar continued higher against the Philippine peso this past week. This brought USD/PHP to just shy of the 2005 high at 56.61. Prices did leave behind a Long Legged Doji, a sign of indecision. But, downside confirmation is lacking. Negative RSI divergence does persist, however. Still, both the 20- and 50-day SMAs remain pointing higher, offering an upside technical bias. Breaking under the 20-day line could shift the outlook increasingly bearish. Otherwise, the 223.60% Fibonacci extension at 57.251 lies ahead.

USD/PHP daily chart

Source: TradingView

Singapore dollar technical outlook – neutral

The US dollar was unable to find material direction in either direction against the Singapore dollar last week. Still, USD/SGD’s uptrend remains intact, offering a slight upside bias. However, there are a couple of early reversal warning signs. The first is a Long Legged Doji candlestick and the second is negative RSI divergence. As such, this is leaving the outlook neutral given that resistance held at 1.4096. Confirming a breakout under the rising trendline from late May could be a sign of a turning point, increasingly shifting the outlook bearish. Otherwise, further gains place the focus on the 100% Fibonacci extension at 1.4238.

USD/SGD daily chart

Source: TradingView

Indonesian rupiah technical outlook – neutral

The US dollar was unable to extend its recent advance against the Indonesian rupiah this past week. USD/IDR continues to hover just above highs from September 2020, which seems to be functioning as immediate support. A Shooting Star candlestick pattern remains in play, but downside follow-through has been notably lacking. Negative RSI divergence also persists. A confirmatory break under the 20-day SMA could increasingly shift the outlook bearish. Otherwise, pushing above the 138.20% Fibonacci extension at 15039 exposes the 150% level at 15092.

USD/IDR daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

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