Why are natural gas prices reaching 2-year highs?

Weather driving demand higher

​Commodity trading participants have seen natural gas prices have surged as Arctic conditions boost heating demand. Lower wind speeds have reduced renewable energy production, increasing reliance on natural gas.

These factors have led to significant withdrawals from storage facilities with US LNG exports having reached record levels of 0.154 billion cubic feet per day. The combined effect has created upward pressure on prices across major markets.

Supply constraints tightening markets

Production challenges from extreme cold have caused "freeze-offs" in key regions, where low temperatures halt natural gas production, leading to supply reductions. ​Trading platform users note that higher-than-average withdrawals from underground storage in January have resulted in inventories falling below the five-year average, indicating a tighter supply.

These supply constraints are contributing to market tightness and price volatility.

Global demand factors

Online trading participants should monitor increasing international demand for LNG as geopolitical tensions continue to affect global supply chains. European markets face particular pressure due to reduced Russian gas flows and rising Asian demand adds further competition for available supplies.

Storage and inventory impacts

Higher-than-average withdrawals have depleted storage facilities across Europe and current inventory levels indicate a tighter supply situation than normal. ​CFD trading investors should watch storage data for price direction. Rebuilding inventories could take longer than usual given current market conditions.

Technical analysis of US natural gas front month futures contracts

​NYMEX natural gas futures briefly overcame their 0.4369 January high and rallied to a 24-month 0.4476 intraday high on Thursday amid severe cold weather which significantly increased gas consumption and also halted gas production, leading to supply reductions.

​NYMEX natural gas front month futures daily chart

Provided the January to February highs at 0.4369/0.4476 cap, a minor retracement to the 24 January high at 0.4050 may unfold. Below it meanders the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 0.3907 which may also offer support.

​NYMEX natural gas front month futures weekly chart

While natural gas futures prices remain above their January low at 0.2990, the medium-term uptrend remains bullish and a rise above the current February 0.4476 high could lead to the major psychological 0.5000 mark being reached.

Market outlook and implications

• The combination of supply and demand factors suggests continued price support.
• Weather forecasts remain crucial for short-term price movements.
• Global LNG trade patterns could influence regional price differences.
• Monitor geopolitical developments for potential market impacts.