​Vodafone share price surges to a four-month high

​​​Telecoms giant Vodafone has seen its price surge since mid-August, but is this really the start of a turnaround?

​The past year has indeed been a bumpy ride for shareholders of Vodafone. The company's share price has experienced a significant decline since late-February, resulting in a loss of over a quarter of its value in just five months. However, amidst this gloomy backdrop, there is a glimmer of hope.

​On Monday, 24 July, Vodafone released its latest trading update, and for once, it contained some positive news. The telecoms giant reported decent organic/adjusted growth across its vast global operations. This is a welcome change from the downward trajectory that has plagued the company in recent months.

​In the first quarter (Q1), Vodafone's total revenue increased by 4.8% compared to the previous year, with adjusted growth reaching 3.7%. These figures indicate that the company is making progress in its efforts to turn things around.

​One market that particularly stood out as a star performer was the UK. With a growth rate of 5.7%, the UK market experienced a boost following inflation-plus price rises earlier this year. Additionally, revenue declines in Germany, Italy, and Spain were less severe than before, indicating some signs of stabilization in these markets.

​Vodafone analyst ratings, price targets and sentiment

Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for Vodafone. Analysts show 3 strong buy, 5 buy, 10 hold, 2 sell and 1 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 99.86 pence for the share, roughly 25% higher than the current price (as of 18 September 2023).

​IG sentiment data shows that 98% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 18 September 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while only 2% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over this week shows 61% of buys and this month 69% of sells.

​Vodafone technical analysis

​Last week the Vodafone’s share price gave a technical buy signal as it saw its first weekly chart close above its July peak at 78.33p. It indicates that the share is probably in the process of forming a medium- and perhaps even long-term bottom which could take it back to its February high at 103.24p.

​Vodafone Weekly Candlestick Chart

​The next technical upside target zone is made up of the December 2022 low at 83.24p, the April low at 87.20 and the 55-week simple moving average (SMA) at 88.12p.

​Potential slips should find support between the July and August highs at 78.33p to 77.03p. Further support can be found between the early June low and the early-July high at 75.31p to 74.10p.

​Vodafone Daily Candlestick Chart

​While the June-to-August lows at 70.06p to 69.90p underpin, a medium-term bottom remains in play with a bullish medium-to long-term reversal expected to ensue.