ASX 200: three stocks to watch as of February 13

ASX 200 Overview

The ASX 200 fell 57 points (-0.76%) on Friday to close at 7490, locking in a 1.5% loss for the week. It was the ASX 200’s first loss in six weeks and came after Tuesday’s hawkish RBA Board meeting followed by a blistering 48 hours of hawkish Fed Speak.

Reacting to the threat of another ratchet higher in interest rates, the Real Estate (-5.69%) and IT Sectors (-4.20%) were the worst hit, closely followed by the Healthcare (-3. 63%) and Utility (-4.20) Sectors.

In this week's Three stocks to watch, we review the recent news and charts of three ASX-listed Real Estate type stocks facing an uncertain macro environment that includes higher interest rates, inflation, and falling property prices.

• REA (REA)

Last week, REA Group, the online Real Estate advertising company, reported its half-year 2023 results. REA reported a 5% increase in revenue to $617m and NPAT of $205 million, down 9%YoY.

The company noted that uncertainty had driven listings lower by 16% in Sydney and 15% in Melbourne and said that its FY2023 positive operating jaws might not be achieved.

The share price of REA, which fell 33% in 2022, is eying the all-important 200-day moving average (MA) at $118.83.

Providing the share price holds of REA holds above $118.13 allow for a rebound towards the recent $128.50 high. However, should the share price see a sustained break of $118.83, it would warn of a test of support near the December $107.39 low.

REA Group daily chart

• Mirvac (MGR)

Last week Mirvac Group reported its half-year 2023 earnings, which proved to be a mixed bag. Mirvac’s operating profit increased by 3% to $305 million, beating expectations. However, the company’s statutory profit fell by 62% to $215 million, driven by lower property revaluations.

While its FY2023 operating guidance of at least 15.5 cents and 2,500 residential settlements was reaffirmed, the company warned of an uncertain future caused by rising interest rates and high inflation. Still, it noted the return of migration as a driver for the economy.

The share price of Mirvac, which fell 26% in 2022, cratered last week to finish almost 7% lower at $2.27, a decline it has extended in the early part of this week.

There is a strong layer of support between $2.20 and $2.10, which includes the 200-day MA, uptrend support and a cluster of highs in August 2022. This level needs to hold to keep the uptrend from the October low intact and to prevent a retest of the October $1.87 low.

Mirvac Group daily chart

• Goodman Group (GMG)

Real Estate heavyweight Goodman Group is due to report its first-half earnings this Thursday, with the market looking for the company to deliver NPAT of $861.7 million.

The share price of Goodman fell over 40% in 2022 from $26.96 to $15.61, reflecting the macro headwinds outlined above. The recovery to this year’s $21.06 high appears to be a countertrend and should the share price fall below the support coming from the 200-day MA at $18.66, it would warn the corrective rebound of 2023 is complete and of a retest of the October $15.61 low.

Goodman Group daily chart