Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

CBA interim results preview: share price and dividend outlook

We look at four key things traders and investors should know before CBA reports its half-year results to the market this week.

CBA H1 results preview: share price and dividend outlook Source: Bloomberg

When will CBA report its latest results?

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is set to report its first-half (FY21) results on Wednesday, 10 February.

Included in these first-half results will be an announcement concerning the bank’s all-important interim dividend. We look at forecasts for the interim dividend in more depth below.

Analysts remain bearish heading into the H1

Despite the CBA share price rallying strongly in the last six months as well as retaining a healthy dividend in 2020, on average, analysts remain downbeat on the stock.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), CBA, on average, has an Underweight consensus rating, with 6 Sell recommendations, 2 Underweight recommendations, 5 Hold recommendations and 1 Buy recommendation.

The average price target on CBA stands at $77.97 per share, according to the WSJ, suggesting that analysts, on average, believe the stock has run ahead of its fundamentals.

CBA share price: Analysts and the markets disagree

Despite analysts remaining underwhelmed by CBA, the stock has performed well over the last six-month period, rising 39.75% from the lows recorded in September 2020.

Looking at the share price performance on a more granular level, over the last 5-day period, as of 1:00PM on Tuesday, 9 February, CBA has risen 1.10%, over the last 1-month period it has gained 2.23%, over the last 3-month period it has added 24.51%, and over the last 6-month period it has rallied 22.40%.

These positive share price moves seem to suggest that the market, made up of retail investors and institutional players, disagree with the sell-side’s bearish view on the biggest of the big four banks.

CBA dividend outlook: Four key forecasts

Share price gyrations and sell-side price targets aside, given the historically high yields of Australia’s big four banks, investors will likely be keenly focused on CBA’s interim dividend announcement as well as any future guidance around dividend payments during Wednesday’s interim results.

Looking at the expectations around CBA’s capital management strategies, analysts from Morgan Stanley said ‘We forecast a dividend of 155c, but no share buyback.’

‘In our view, any commentary on the medium-term payout ratio would be important,’ the investment bank added.

Citi analysts were more optimistic than Morgan Stanley, forecasting CBA to pay an interim dividend of 165 cents per share – moderately ahead of consensus estimates.

The broader outlook, both economically and for the banks has indeed improved in recent times, leading Citi analysts to point out that:

‘The lack of bad debts through the September quarter and a rapidly improving macro situation through the December quarter leaves us wondering whether bad debts, dividends and share prices will all surprise together.’

Finally, Macquarie estimates that the bank will pay a 1H dividend of 175 cents per share; while UBS said they expect CBA’s interim dividend to come in at 153 cents per share.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Tuesday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.