EUR/GBP bounces off five-month low, AUD/USD stabilizes post RBA meeting while USD/JPY remains bullish
Outlook on EUR/GBP, AUD/USD and USD/JPY as RBA keeps rates on hold but re-iterates its hawkish stance.
EUR/GBP recovers from five-month low
EUR/GBP finally managed to rise from its £0.8514 five-month January low, made within the June-to-August support area at £0.8519 to £0.8493, and briefly rose to a two-week high at £0.8572 as UK retail sales growth slowed further in January.
A rise above £0.8572 puts the 9 January low at £0.8587 on the map, ahead of the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) at £0.8608 to £0.8626.
Slips should find support around the 1 February high at £0.8559 and the £0.855 December low.
A now less likely fall through £0.8514 to £0.8493 would likely push the April 2021 low at £0.8472 to the fore.
AUD/USD range trades above one-month low
AUD/USD's descent from its five-month December peak at $0.6871 has taken the cross to Monday’s low at $0.6469 before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its base rate at 4.35% as anticipated.
The central bank cited that progress on inflation "remained high”, that its priority was to return it “to target within a reasonable timeframe” and that it may have to hike rates further in order to do so.
A minor bounce towards the $0.6525 December and mid-January lows is currently underway. This resistance zone would need to be exceeded for an attempt to the upside to be made. In such a scenario the December-to-January downtrend line and 200-day SMA at $0.6575 to $0.659 would likely cap, though.
A fall through $0.6469 would have the 11 October high at $0.6445 in its sights, ahead of the August, early-September and mid-November 2023 lows at $0.6365 to $0.6339.
USD/JPY bulls are back in control
USD/JPY briefly made a two-month high at ¥148.89 on Monday, having surged higher on much stronger-than-expected US employment and US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services data since Friday. Above the January and current February highs at ¥148.80 to ¥148.89 beckons the minor psychological ¥150.00 mark.
Minor support below the late January ¥148.34 high is seen around the 31 January ¥147.90 high.
The medium-term uptrend will remain intact while last week’s low at ¥145.90 underpins.
Were a slip through ¥145.90 to ensue, however, the 55-day SMA at ¥145.64 could be reached ahead of the 200-day SMA at ¥144.72.
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