Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP rally on hawkish ECB, USD/JPY stabilises

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY amid ECB and FOMC member comments.

Video poster image

EUR/USD rallies on weakening US economic data

EUR/USD’s rally from its early January low at $1.0484 low so far made a new nine-month high at $1.0927 as US home sales slid to a 12-year low in December and Federal reserve meeting (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a less hawkish monetary policy amid a continued decline in inflation, pushing the US dollar basket to an eight-month low and benefitting the Euro.

The cross is fast approaching the late April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.094, also helped by hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. Above this resistance area beckons the psychological $1.10 mark.

Immediate minor support can be spotted around the 12 January $1.0867 high and more significant support at last week’s $1.0766 low. While above it, the short- and medium-term uptrends remain intact.
The $1.0766 low, together with the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715 is expected to offer good support, were it to be revisited. Further support can be found around the $1.0663 to $1.0658 16 to 28 December highs.

EUR/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com
EUR/USD chart Source: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP rises on hawkish ECB comments

EUR/GBP is seen recovering from last week’s low at £0.8722 following comments by ECB governing council member Klaas Knot indicating that the central bank is set to raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) in both February and March.

Above the minor psychological £0.88 level minor resistance can be spotted at the £0.8828 November peak as well as the £0.8834 22 December high, above which sits more significant resistance between the December and current January highs at £0.8877 to £0.8897.

Support comes along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8732 and last week’s low at £0.8722. If slipped through, the 23 November high and 19 December low at £0.8701 to £0.8691 may be reached. Further down sits the 28 November high at £0.8676.

EUR/GBP chart Source: IT-Finance.com
EUR/GBP chart Source: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY remains above its early January low

USD/JPY continues to trade above its early January low at ¥127.23 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held firm on its yield curve range and kept its interest rate at an extremely dovish -0.1% on Wednesday with another hot inflation reading on Friday supporting the case for tightening, however.

The currency pair looks short-term bid with Friday’s high at ¥130.61 being eyed ahead of the ¥131.32 to ¥131.58 October-to-January downtrend line and last week’s high. While this resistance area caps, the short-term downtrend remains intact.

The medium-term downtrend will stay intact while the late December and current January highs at ¥134.50 to ¥134.77 aren’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis.
Below the early January low at ¥127.23 lie the late April and May 2022 lows at ¥126.95 to ¥126.36.

USD/JPY chart Source: IT-Finance.com
USD/JPY chart Source: IT-Finance.com

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Tuesday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.