Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Global equity market outlook: FOMC to drive market sentiment in week ahead

Global equity markets moved lower after central bank rate hike bets increased; the week ahead includes rate decisions from the FOMC, BoJ, BoE and SNB and market sentiment likely hinges on how traders interpret the FOMC decision.

Source: Bloomberg

Global equity market outlook – bearish

A surprisingly high US inflation report for August caught traders off-guard last week, resulting in steep losses in US equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 4.13%, and the high-beta Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) plummeted 5.77%, one of its worst losses of the year. Traders appeared rather bullish on Monday as stock prices rose, but Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) ended the buying.

The market moved quickly to price in a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Overnight index swaps, on Tuesday, showed a 33.9% chance for a 100-basis point rate hike at the September 22 FOMC meeting. Rate traders sold Treasuries in response, which pushed the policy-sensitive 2-year yield higher throughout the rest of the week, ending at 3.87%. That was the highest mark since October 2007.

The 10Y/2Y Treasury spread fell 18 basis points to its deepest inversion since mid-August, which stoked recession fears. US equity indexes would likely rise if traders believe the Fed is nearing the peak of its rate hiking cycle, but the chances for a sustained rally lessen as the chances for a recession rise. The chances for a global recession have risen, however. FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam, in a CNBC interview, said, “I think so…” when asked by if the global economy is entering a recession by Jim Cramer.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the third quarter fell to 0.5% on September 15 from 1.3% on September 9. A recession would hinder margins and compress earnings across most sectors, which would weigh heavily on stock prices. The FOMC’s updated dot plot, a map that illustrates the expected rate outlook among voting members, is set for an update. Moreover, global demand faces growing pressure from rising interest rates abroad.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to hike its benchmark rate by 75-basis points from -0.25% to 0.5%. The recent hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) gave the SNB some policy room to deliver an aggressive rate hike, along with high inflation and a modestly-priced Swiss Franc.

The Bank of England is also set to hike rates, although at a slower pace of 50-bps. There is, however, a small chance that the BoE or SNB may deliver a larger-than-expected hike, which would likely be a negative for European stocks. The Bank of Japan, despite an extraordinarily weak Yen, is seen holding policy steady.

Source: atlantafed.org

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Tuesday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.