How Nvidia's post-earnings trends set the stage for Q4 2025 results

(AI summary)

GPU highs and lows: Nvidia's stock performance

As a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing, Nvidia's performance is a vital indicator for both the AI and semiconductor industries. The strong demand for its AI-focused Blackwell GPUs is a major revenue driver, with CEO Jensen Huang describing demand as 'staggering.' This success highlights Nvidia’s leading market position despite increased competition from companies like China’s DeepSeek.

Nvidia is preparing to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings on Thursday, 27 February at 8:20am AEDT, after the market closes. With anticipated strong financial results, Nvidia’s share price is expected to show volatility. This article examines how Nvidia’s stock typically reacts after earnings announcements - covering one day, one week, and one month - and offers insights for investors.

Key financials

Expectations for Q4

• Revenue: $38 billion
• Revenue growth: 72% year-on-year (YoY)
• Earnings per share (EPS): $0.84

Comparison to previous quarter

• Revenue: $35.1 billion
• Revenue growth: 94% YoY
• Net income: $19.3 billion
• EPS: $0.81

Post earnings performance analysis

• Immediate reactions (one day)

Nvidia's share price often shows sharp movements right after earnings announcements. The data indicates a mix of positive and negative one-day reactions, with some quarters experiencing significant spikes or drops. For example, first quarter (Q1) 2024 and Q1 2025 saw gains exceeding 20%, reflecting investor enthusiasm after strong earnings. In contrast, quarters like Q4 2022 and third quarter (Q3) 2023 recorded declines, highlighting instances where results or guidance didn’t meet expectations.

• Short-term adjustments (one week)

Over a week, Nvidia’s share price often extends its initial reaction, either building on or reversing initial gains or losses. During quarters like second quarter (Q2) 2022 and Q4 2024, sustained bullish sentiment led to continued share price increases. However, periods like Q3 2023 and Q2 2025 saw continued declines, suggesting that initial negative earnings reactions were supported by broader market sentiment or deeper analyses of fundamentals.

• Medium-term trends (one month)

Strong earnings reports often result in extended rallies, as seen in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, where share prices rose more than 25% in the following month. Conversely, disappointing results or macroeconomic challenges, such as in Q3 2023, can lead to prolonged declines.

• Overall patterns

Nvidia’s post-earnings share price movements indicate high volatility, with notable differences between positive and negative responses. Strong earnings typically drive upward trends, while underperformance can lead to extended declines. The data also suggests larger stock swings during periods of intense interest in the AI sector, such as the substantial gains following earnings in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025.

• Implications for investors

For investors, Nvidia’s earnings-driven volatility offers both opportunities and risks. Short-term traders can capitalise on immediate price swings, while long-term investors should focus on fundamental growth trends. Some analysts predict Nvidia could become the first $4 trillion company, pointing to its long-term growth potential.

However, market volatility remains a concern. Investors should monitor Nvidia's future guidance, especially as AI chip demand continues to outpace supply.

Nvidia's post-earnings performance chart