Market update: Federal Reserve March announcement: rate outlook & market reactions

The Federal Reserve will release its March monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Consensus estimates overwhelmingly suggest that the institution led by Jerome Powell will hold its benchmark rate unchanged within its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, effectively maintaining the status quo for the fifth consecutive meeting. Moreover, analysts widely anticipate that the central bank will keep its quantitative tightening program intact for now, continuing to reduce its bond holdings gradually.

While the decision on interest rates themselves may not deliver dramatic surprises, markets will be laser-focused on the forward guidance. With that in mind, the FOMC may repeat that it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce borrowing costs until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is converging sustainably toward two percent – a move that would indicate more evidence on disinflation is needed before pulling the trigger. Current FOMC meeting probabilities are shown below.

FOMC meeting probabilities

In terms of macroeconomic projections, the Fed is likely to mark up its gross domestic product and core PCE deflator forecasts for the year, reflecting economic resilience and sticky price pressures evidenced by the last two CPI and PPI reports. The revised outlook could compel policymakers to signal less monetary policy easing over the medium term, potentially scaling back the three rate cuts initially envisioned for 2024 to only two.

Market reaction: Fed's signal impact on yields, dollar, stocks & gold

If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint; and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see US Treasury yields and the US dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction).

Chart on the projections from the December FOMC meeting

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