Moderna share price and Q2 2022 results preview

When are Moderna’s results expected?

Moderna is set to release its Q2 2022 results on 3 August 2022. The results are for the fiscal quarter ending June 2022.

What is ‘The Street’s’ expectation for the Q2 2022 results?

‘The Street’ expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:

• Revenue of $4.065 billion : -6.63% year on year (YoY)
• Earnings per share (EPS): $4.55 (-29.59% YoY)

As new variants in the coronavirus, such as omicron and its subvariants, keep emerging and countries such as the UK have lowered the age of those eligible for a second booster vaccine to the over 50s, the demand for vaccines such as the strain-specific one Moderna is developing, remains high.

This increased demand, as well as the fact that when Moderna will begin selling its vaccines directly to pharmacies at much higher prices than it does for government bulk orders, has recently boosted the Moderna share price which, even though it is still down around 30% year-to-date (YTD), has risen by around 50% from its June lows.

If Western countries were to develop a strategy of annual Covid 19 strain-specific booster vaccinations, like the annual flu jab, Moderna, as one of the world’s largest coronavirus vaccine producers, should greatly benefit.

The combined flu/Covid-19 shot Moderna is currently working on may further boost its share price, as may its phase 3 trials on vaccines for the flu, cytomegalovirus (CMV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) if they come to fruition, especially since vaccines for CMV and RSV don’t exist yet and would give Moderna the first-to-market advantage.

If, however, only the more at risk were to receive an annual booster shot and its three phase 3 trials were all come to nothing, demand for Moderna vaccines would be much lower. This is the main dilemma facing investors in Moderna shares.

How to trade Moderna into the results

Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of between ‘buy’ and ‘hold’ for Moderna – 2 strong buy, 7 buy, 10 hold and 1 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $199.00 for the share, roughly 20% higher than the current price (as of 26 July 2022).

IG sentiment data shows that 86% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 26 July 2022) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 14% of these clients expect the price to fall.

Technical outlook on Moderna share price

The Moderna share price has been trying to bottom out for the majority of this year but still trades around 30% lower YTD.

For a medium-term bottom formation to be confirmed, a rise and weekly Friday chart close above the March peak at $188.00 would need to be seen. If so, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 2021-to-2022 downtrend line at $195.93 to $198.6 would be in focus, a rise of around 20% from current levels (as of 26 July).

The technical signs of a medium-term bottom likely being seen are encouraging, though, since the Moderna share price successfully defended its March and May lows by dropping to $115.61 in June before embarking on an uptrend which has so far added around 50% to its value.

During July the Moderna share price has been trading sideways below its early-July high at $180.73 for several weeks but is being supported by its two-month uptrend line at $160.6 and the $155.93 mid-July low. While the next lower late-June low at $135.52 underpins, the June-to-July uptrend remains intact.

Failure at $135.52 on a daily chart closing basis would likely push the March, May and June lows at $122.01 to $115.61 to the fore with this major support zone then expected to give way to the minor psychological $100.00 mark.

Summary

• Moderna is set to release its Q2 2022 results on 3 August 2022
• Q2 2022 results are expected to show a YoY decrease in both revenue and EPS
• Annual Covid-19 booster shots, direct sales to pharmacies and successful phase 3 trials for the flu, CMV, and RSV may boost Moderna’s share price but booster shots only for the at risk and unsuccessful trials could decrease demand for the company’s vaccines
• Long-term broker consensus suggests the share to currently be split between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’, with a median price target of $199.00
• 86% of IG’s clients with open positions are long the share
• The Moderna share price has been trying to bottom out for much of this year and a technical bottoming formation would be confirmed by a weekly chart close above the March peak at $188.00