Trade growth indicator remains at nine-year low, WTO says
The World Trade Organisation’s quarterly indicator showed that global trade growth is likely to remain weak in the first half of 2019 as a myriad of macroeconomic headwinds increase economic uncertainty.
The latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) outlook indicator showed that trade growth is likely to remain weak into the second quarter of 2019.
The new WTOI reading is 96.3, exactly as it was in the previous release in February this year, maintaining the weakest level since 2010.
Trade growth may weaken further as US-China trade negotiations turn sour
In their April trade forecast, WTO economists estimated that merchandise trade volume growth would fall to 2.6% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018, before rebounding to 3.0% in 2020.
Any rebound in 2020 would depend on reduced trade tensions and/or improved macroeconomic performance.
‘The outlook for trade could worsen further if heightened trade tensions are not resolved or if macroeconomic policy fails to adjust to changing circumstances,’ the WTO said.
Macroeconomic headwinds threaten global trade growth
The UK is no closer to breaking the Brexit deadlock and finding a resolution on its future relationship with the EU and the US President Donald Trump continues to threaten to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods.
For global trade growth to pick up in the second half of the year, businesses and investors will be hoping that US and Chinese officials will find a way to deescalate tensions and the UK can finally provide clarity on how it plans to leave the EU.
IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.
The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer.
Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.
European Central Bank meeting
Learn about how the ECB meeting affects interest rates and price stability ahead of the next announcement.
- How might the next meeting affect the markets?
- What are the key rate decisions to watch?
- Why is the Governing Council announcement important for traders?
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
See more forex live prices
See more shares live prices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
See more indices live prices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.