US dollar leap shows few signs of slowing: USD/PHP, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/SGD
US dollar’s aggressive appreciation against ASEAN FX continued; Philippine peso seems most at risk as PHP weakened to 2005 low Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah struggling too, SGD may hold.
Philippine peso technical outlook – bullish
The US dollar has been on a crushing winning streak against the Philippine peso. In fact, USD/PHP is on course to rise about 4.7% this month. That would be the best performance since 2009. This past week, the pair shot above the 2018 peak at 54.43, the highest close since November 2005. Momentum is showing no signs of stopping. Clearing the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 54.929 exposes the 161.8% level at 55.571 on the way to the 2005 peak at 56.61. In the event of a turn lower, keep a close eye on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as key support.
USD/PHP daily chart
Thai baht technical outlook – bullish
The US dollar extended its winning streak against the Thai baht last week, bringing June’s gain to 3.31%, the most since September 2021. USD/THB closed above the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 35.426. That has exposed the 61.8% level at 35.751. Beyond the latter sits the December 2016 peak at 36.08. In the event of a turn lower, the 20-period SMA could hold as support, reinstating the dominant upside focus. The former 34.759 – 34.850 resistance zone could also enforce itself as new support.
USD/THB daily chart
Indonesian rupiah technical outlook – slightly bullish
The US dollar continued its winning streak against the Indonesian rupiah as well, with USD/IDR up 1.84% this month so far. That is the best performance since September 2020. However, the uptrend somewhat slowed last week as prices were unable to clear the 100% Fibonacci extension at 14870. Also, negative RSI divergence seems to be taking foot, hinting that momentum is weakening. The latter can at times be a preliminary reversal signal. As such, traders ought to proceed with caution if there is some downside price action in the days ahead. Otherwise, the outlook is slightly bullish, with key resistance as September 2020 highs (14915 – 14975).
USD/IDR daily chart
Singapore dollar technical outlook – neutral
The US dollar continued to consolidate against the Singapore dollar this past week, failing to achieve meaningful progress in either direction. This is leaving USD/SGD in a neutral state going forward. Still, keep a close eye on the 50-day SMA. The latter is slowly closing in and it could reinstate the broader upside focus. Key resistance seems to be May highs, making for a range between 1.3946 and 1.3986.
USD/SGD daily chart
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