Singapore banks Q4 2024 earnings – Another resilient quarter expected

The three local banks are set to release their Q4 2024 earnings over the coming weeks. Over the past year, the banks have outperformed the broader Straits Times Index (STI), which returned 22.7% as of 31 January 2025. Among the banking trio, DBS Group Holdings Ltd led with a stellar 54.8% increase, followed by OCBC at 35.9% and UOB at 32.9%.

High-for-longer rate environment to support resilience in net interest margin

The bulk of banks’ earnings remains driven by net interest income, which is expected to stay resilient amid the high-for-longer rate environment. Thus far, market expectations have recalibrated to reflect a slower pace of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), given the need for further progress toward the 2% inflation target and the continued strength of the US labour market. This supports a more gradual decline in loan yields, with the spread between loan and deposit rates likely to narrow at a measured pace.

For Q4 2024, DBS’ net interest margin (NIM) is projected to hold steady at 2.11%, while OCBC’s NIM may ease slightly to 2.16% from 2.18%. UOB’s NIM is also expected to soften marginally to 2.03% from 2.05%. Amid the slight softening trend, the banks’ NIMs will continue to stay well above 2022 levels.

Loan demand likely to see an uptick in Q4 2024

Loan momentum is expected to see some pick-up in Q4 2024 as well, with data suggesting that overall loans have increased by 5.2% year-on-year in December 2024, up from the 3.3% in November. This improvement in lending conditions may be supported by higher confidence around the economy, with Singapore’s low unemployment rate and strong labour conditions encouraging more borrowing for both housing loans and consumer financing. Additionally, the ongoing digital transformation and the growing artificial intelligence (AI) trend could help to support business investments and account for the increased business lending demand.

Momentum in fees and commissions income to contribute to banks’ earnings

Healthy growth momentum in the banks’ net fees and commissions income is expected to contribute meaningfully to the banks’ non-interest income portion as well. Over the past year, the global M&A markets are back on its upward trajectory as business sentiments improve. The focus on growth and digital transformation in the age of AI may help to underpin M&A activities, while Singapore’s position as a stable hub amid a more volatile global environment could remain attractive for regional wealth flows.

Economic outlook in focus with Trump 2.0

In the previous reporting quarter (Q3 2024), Singapore banks generally offered a cautious yet optimistic guidance for the economy. They projected modest loan growth and highlighted the resilience of domestic demand, along with continued strength in wealth management, advisory and transaction services. On the other hand, they expressed caution around geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, which were presented this week with the tariff flip flops by US president Donald Trump.

The upcoming banks’ outlook may continue to revolve around economic resilience, though with ongoing caution about the volatile geopolitical dynamics under a Trump administration. Loan loss provisions have remained stable in recent quarters, with minimal build-ups, and this trend is expected to persist in the upcoming reporting quarter.

Fund flow data shows institutional net inflows over past year

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) fund flow data shows more subdued net institutional flows for the financial sector in the month of December, potentially due to the quieter year-end holiday period. But over the past one year, cumulative net institutional inflows amount to close to S$1.19 billion since January last year. This reflects strong institutional confidence around the banks, with traction for its robust earnings, resilient credit quality, and attractive dividends.

DBS currently offers a dividend yield of 4.8%, while OCBC’s yield stands at 5.0% and UOB’s at 4.6%, with all three trading above their respective five-year historical averages.

DBS share price: Technical analysis

DBS share price continues to trade within a near-term upward channel, with the lower trendline support at the S$43.80 level on watch for some defending. Recent weeks have seen a loss of upward momentum, evident in the formation of lower highs on the daily relative strength index (RSI). However, with technical indicators now at more neutral levels, attention will turn to the upcoming earnings report to potentially catalyse a fresh leg higher. In the event where the channel support is breached, the share price could head toward the S$42.48 level for a retest.

OCBC share price: Technical analysis

Similarly, OCBC share price has been trading in a near-term pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with key trendline support at S$16.96. The share price seems to be closing in on its previous record high at the S$17.60 level, with any successful break potentially paving the way towards the S$19.00 level next, based on the upward channel projection.

UOB share price: Technical analysis

UOB share price seems to be trading more within a near-term range, which may reflect some market indecision for now. Its flat-lined daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) points to slowing upward momentum, with some wait-and-see in place. Likewise, its share price is currently trading less than 2% below its previous record high at the S$37.94 level, with any break potentially setting the next price target at the S$39.90 level.