The Trade: impact of the US election on Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and oil markets

(AI video summary)

This video was created on 6 November for IG audiences by ausbiz.

Volatility and positive momentum on Wall Street

Despite election-related uncertainty, the US session overnight displayed positive momentum, especially in tech stocks like Nvidia. Strong data from the October ISM manufacturing report supported markets, with the Nasdaq rising above 20,000, a critical support level. Investors, however, remain cautious as Nvidia's earnings announcement approaches on 21 November.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market movements

Cryptocurrencies are also feeling the impact of election developments. Trump’s pro-crypto stance could bring significant market shifts, with bitcoin recently peaking at 73,600 before a pullback driven by fluctuating poll results. Key support levels for bitcoin are between 67,000 and 65,000, and a Republican victory could drive further gains.

Crude oil market and geopolitical influences

Crude oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical factors, including a potential tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico and possible retaliatory actions by Iran. Sycamore notes that these events, combined with the election outcome, could push crude prices toward the 200-day moving average at $77 if supply concerns intensify.

ASX 200 and Australian dollar outlook

The ASX 200 awaits US election results, with resistance at 8,370 to 8,380 and support around 8,100. A favourable election result could prompt a retest of resistance levels, while a drop below 8,100 might signal a deeper decline. The Australian dollar, holding steady at around 66.35 US cents after the Reserve Bank of Australia paused rates, could see swings to either 68.50 or 63.50 depending on the election outcome.