Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

US election 2024: Bitcoin hits all-time high, US dollar, yields and stocks up

The 2024 US presidential election has already started to significantly impact financial markets. Here's what traders should know about potential outcomes and market scenarios.

USA Nasdaq Source: Adobe images

US election market impact: Trump expected to win

With Donald Trump expected to be nominated as the 47th president of the United States (US) with 277 out of 270 electoral votes versus 226 for vice president Kamala Harris (as of 5.00pm AEDT), financial markets are in a flurry.

Even before the Republicans took control of the US Senate, Bitcoin surpassed its March peak and reached an all-time high, and the US dollar, along with stock indices in overnight trading, surged by 1% while US Treasury yields rallied to new multi-month highs.

Republicans had 38 seats that were not up for re-election this season. According to AP projections, they have now won 13 of their Senate elections, giving them a 51-seat majority in the 100-seat chamber.

The majority switch was caused by the defeat of Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in Ohio and the victory of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz over Democratic challenger Colin Allred.

Early voting patterns suggest a competitive race

Trump has shown a stronger-than-expected performance in traditionally Democratic-leaning areas, although the final outcome remains uncertain. Market positioning reflects these early trends.

Harris’s path to victory appears to rely heavily on reclaiming key Midwest battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Any shifts in these expectations could trigger significant market reversals. Traditional Democratic strongholds will need to hold firm for Harris to maintain a viable path to victory. This uncertainty is likely to continue to drive market volatility.

Anticipated Trump win impact on the US dollar

The US dollar has shown considerable strength, reflecting market expectations of potentially inflationary Trump policies. This has created opportunities across multiple trading platforms.

US dollar index daily candlestick chart

The Mexican peso has experienced particularly sharp moves, with USD/MXN rising over 3% as traders price in potential trade policy shifts. Forex trading volumes have spiked across major pairs.

USD/JPY has gained 1.4%, while other major currencies, including the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar, have all declined more than 1% against the greenback.

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView

The euro and British pound sterling also lost ground versus the greenback, with the latter approaching its October low at $1.2844, a fall through which may bring the August trough at $1.2665 into play.

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView
GBP/USD daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView

Cryptocurrency markets have also responded positively, with Bitcoin rallying by around 8% and reaching new highs on expectations of a crypto-friendly regulatory environment under Trump.

US Treasury markets show significant volatility

The broad dollar strength reflects market expectations of higher yields and potentially inflationary policies under a Trump administration. These moves echo patterns seen in previous election cycles.

Treasury markets have responded decisively to early election results, with yields surging significantly. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 20 basis points (bp) to 4.47%, a level last seen in early July, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed 13 bp to 4.31%, a new three-month high.

US 10-year treasury daily candlestick chart

US 10-year treasury daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView
US 10-year treasury daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView

US futures march higher amid expectations of Trump win

US stock indices all traded higher by over 1% in overnight trading with small-cap equity futures outperforming broader markets, as traders position for potential 'America First' policies and deregulation. This echoes similar moves seen during the 2016 election.

The E-Mini Russell 2000 front month futures contract rallied by up to 3% in overnight trading to levels last traded in November 2021.

E-Mini Russell 2000 future weekly candlestick chart

E-Mini Russell 2000 future weekly candlestick chart Source: TradingView
E-Mini Russell 2000 future weekly candlestick chart Source: TradingView

Traders using CFD trading platforms have seen increased volatility across US equity indices.

Trading opportunities across multiple asset classes

Share dealing opportunities may emerge as different sectors react to potential policy shifts. Small-cap stocks have shown particular sensitivity to election developments. The surge in Treasury yields has created ripple effects across multiple markets, affecting everything from currency pairs to commodity trading.

Market participants should maintain careful position sizing given the potential for sharp reversals as final results emerge.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

Seize a share opportunity today

Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.

  • Increase your market exposure with leverage
  • Get spreads from just 0.1% on major global shares
  • Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Tuesday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.