The trade: Nasdaq trends, ASX 200 support, and Bitcoin predictions
IG's Tony Sycamore analyses Nasdaq fluctuations ahead of CPI data, which could impact anticipated FOMC rate cuts, as well as key support levels for the ASX 200 and Australian dollar, and predictions for Bitcoin and gold.
(AI video summary)
This video was created on 11 December for IG audiences by ausbiz.
Navigating Nasdaq market trends
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced a retreat in recent days, driven by caution ahead of the consumer price index (CPI) release. This data is crucial as it precedes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where an 85% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut is priced in.
If the core CPI exceeds expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut could decrease, impacting the Nasdaq. Despite these fluctuations, the Nasdaq remains in a strong uptrend, with significant support levels at 19,000 and 21,000, bolstered by the 200-day moving average.
This presents opportunities for traders to re-establish long positions during pullbacks, especially as the market enters a seasonally bullish period.
ASX 200 key support levels
The ASX 200 has seen fluctuations, influenced by China's recent stimulus measures and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish stance. A potential head and shoulders pattern could signal a pullback towards 8200 if the neckline support at 8350 is breached.
Australian dollar under pressure
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has been under pressure, falling below $0.64 due to RBA's rate hold and United States-China tensions. Key support lies between $0.635 and $0.637.
A break below this range could see the Aussie dollar decline further, highlighting the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and central bank policies.
Bitcoin market movements and predictions
Bitcoin recently rallied to a high of 103,000, but a cooling-off period is anticipated. Traders are watching for a pullback towards 90,000, with the year's end position around 95,000 being significant. Regulatory changes and Trump's team appointments could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.
Gold's inconsistent rally
In contrast, gold has seen gains amid geopolitical tensions, though its rally has been inconsistent. Despite breaking above trendline support, gold's momentum is faltering.
Traders might consider buying opportunities closer to the 200-day moving average around 2500, as the market awaits further economic data and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions.
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