EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY take a breather as investors mull over outlook
Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY amid hawkish Federal Reserve, strong ADP employment data and Japan narrowly avoiding a recession.
EUR/USD finds interim support around its February low
EUR/USD found support around its $1.0533 February low as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his hawkish tone in his testimony before the US House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday in which he said that the Fed is “prepared to increase the pace of interest rate hikes” if the data requires it but that no decision regarding the March committee meeting had been taken yet.
Hawkish comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde helped stabilise EUR/USD on Wednesday but a slip below the recent lows at $1.0533 to $1.0525 would push the $1.0484 to $1.0444 support zone, made up of the mid-November high, early-December and January lows, to the fore. It is expected to hold when first tested.
Minor resistance in case of an advance above Wednesday’s high at $1.0573 being seen, comes in at the $1.0612 mid-February low.
EUR/GBP’s advance on a hawkish ECB remains intact
EUR/GBP’s rise through its February-to-March downtrend line and above the early March high at £0.8896 on hawkish comments by several ECB committee members has so far taken it close to its £0.8928 mid-February high.
Were it to be exceeded, the early-February peak at £0.8978 would be back in the frame, together with the minor psychological £0.900 mark.
Support comes in along the March uptrend line at £0.8889 and then at the breached two-month downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity support line, at £0.887. Further down sits the 25 January high at £0.8852.
USD/JPY struggles around the 200-day simple moving average
USD/JPY has so far risen to a three-month high at ¥137.91 before slipping back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥137.44 as Japan quarter four (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) was revised lower to show no growth with the country narrowly avoiding a recession.
Immediate support can be spotted along its two-month uptrend line at ¥136.28, ahead of its recent March lows at ¥135.37 to ¥135.26. While these underpin, an upside bias remains in play.
Should a slip through ¥135.26 be seen, however, the more significant ¥134.77 January high and ¥133.63 early-December low should offer support. A continued advance and rise above Wednesday’s high at ¥137.91 would engage the December high at ¥138.17.
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