President Biden steps aside – what happens now?
Global markets are digesting the news that President Biden will not run for re-election. What is likely to happen now?
Biden leaves the race – what now?
President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race has created an unprecedented situation in modern American politics. This summary outlines the key points regarding the process of selecting a new Democratic nominee and the potential candidates who may emerge.
The nomination process
The Democratic Party now faces the challenge of selecting a new presidential nominee with no clear protocol in place. The party's delegates, who are not bound to a specific candidate, will likely make this decision at the Democratic National Convention in August. President Biden's endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris may influence the process, but it is not binding.
Potential candidates
While Vice President Harris is considered a frontrunner, other potential candidates have been mentioned. While other names such as governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsome were touted as other candidates, the latter has already backed Harris and the former may well follow suit. Interestingly, a recent poll indicated that former First Lady Michelle Obama could potentially defeat Donald Trump, although her candidacy is considered unlikely.
Campaign finance considerations
The transfer of campaign funds to the new nominee presents another challenge. While the law is untested in this situation, many experts believe that Harris has the right to access the Biden campaign's financial resources, as her name was on the ticket. The Biden campaign has already filed to change its name to "Harris for President," potentially giving her control of the finances.
Potential challenges
The Democratic Party faces the risk of internal conflict as candidates compete for delegate support. The party leadership will likely aim to avoid public infighting so close to the election. However, with no clear succession plan in place, the process could become contentious.
Uncertain weeks lie ahead
As the Democratic Party navigates this uncharted territory, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of their presidential campaign. The choice of a new nominee will have significant implications for the party's strategy and its chances in the upcoming election against the Republican candidate.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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