WTI crude oil price remains under pressure
WTI crude oil price remains under pressure for fundamental and technical reasons and may reach the $64.00-to-$62.00 region.
Demand concerns drive oil price to 15-month low
WTI crude oil futures fell roughly 8% last week. Intensifying concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's biggest economies, the USA, China and Europe, coupled with ample supply brought about the fall in WTI crude oil prices to levels last seen in June 2023.
Disappointing US jobs data concluded a week of weak labour market signals, sluggish European data compounded concerns over energy demand, along with ongoing unease about soft consumption and disinflation in China. In addition, Bank of America lowered its 2025 price outlook for Brent crude oil to $75.00 from $80.00 per barrel, and for WTI to $71.00 from $75.00.
In addition Saudi Aramco cutting its October official selling prices pointed towards weak Asian demand. The hope for a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, although seemingly diminishing by the day, also weighed on the oil price.
Ample supply puts further pressure on the oil price
OPEC+'s original plan to increase production amid ample supply also weighed on the oil price. Now that the decision to delay the 180,000 barrel per day production increase until December has been made, the price of oil is stabilising. Hamas adding demands for a ceasefire raises doubts over whether a deal can be brokered by the Biden administration. This and the potential supply risks from an approaching hurricane currently supports market sentiment. After all, the US Gulf Coast accounts for 60% of the country's refining capacity.
Technical analysis of the WTI crude oil price
The price of WTI has seen four straight weeks of falling prices with it falling to below its $67.74 per barrel December 2023 low before finding initial support. The current September low at $67.19 sits only marginally above the May-to-June 2023 support zone at $67.10-to-$66.85.
WTI crude oil weekly candlestick chart
Were this support area to give way on a weekly chart closing basis, the March and May 2023 lows as well as the November 2021 low at $64.41-to-$62.46 would be in focus.
Since the price of WTI has found support close to the December 2023 low, it is possible that the oil price may soon stabilise. At present, the downtrend looks to be firmly entrenched, though.
WTI crude oil daily candlestick chart
Furthermore any attempt at a recovery rally would most likely falter around previous support, now because of inverse polarity resistance. This is made up of the June, early and late August lows at $71.49-to-$72.43. Only a bullish reversal and rise above this resistance area and, ideally, also above the late August high at $77.56, would begin to make investors question their technically bearish outlook.
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