Boeing’s share price: what to expect from Q1 results

When is Boeing’s results date?

Next Wednesday, April 27, prior to the market open is when we can expect to see the latest figures from Boeing.

Boeing share price: forecasts from Q1 results

And while investors and traders will be tuning in for its first quarter (Q1) earnings, revenue, and much more, the mood isn’t particularly positive based on where the bar has been set, making a takeoff analogy difficult to formulate. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be in the red with analysts’ forecasts from Zacks Investment Research at $-0.26 that’s been revised lower over the past few months, and hopes are it won’t significantly miss to the downside like it did last time around on the Dreamliner hit.

It did go cash flow positive to the tune of about half a billion dollars by the end of the fourth quarter opposite outflows prior, and revenue is estimated at $15.6 billion, though it has struggled to match expectations on that front in the recent past. Sanctions against Russia have meant both it and rival Airbus will join other companies that have halted their business, and in turn take a hit. 141 of its planes were removed from its backlog and in accounting limbo, more than 90 a result of the Ukraine war. Spare parts and maintenance support means it won’t just be the aircraft sales side of the business that might be a bit lighter than its potential.

There’s been a string of news that’s been more friendly to its share price, with the (1) mask mandate removed in the US, (2) Delta Airlines beating estimates with a smaller loss and expected to return to profit this quarter as a rise in bookings helps best the spike in fuel costs (and where both American and United Airlines are up next), (3) China Eastern Airlines resuming the use of its 737-800 following the crash last month, and (4) unconfirmed reports that deliveries of the Dreamliner will be back in the second half of this year. Details of the last one will be crucial for investors when earnings are reported.

As for analyst ratings (source: finance.yahoo.com), they haven’t been as optimistic compared to the last two months where those advocating a ‘hold’ were a clear minority. It’s still a slight buy bias amongst them with the number of ‘buy’ and ‘strong buy’ combined holding a majority against those who are neutral, but it’s not by a healthy margin.

Trading Boeing’s Q1 results: weekly technical overview and trading strategies

There have been attempts at breaking its previous long-term bear trend channel with the brief spikes in November of last year and January of this year resulting in a revised and widened bear trend channel, and price action resting near the middle of both it and its Bollinger bands as of late.

Prices are still below all its main moving averages on the weekly time frame, a DMI (Directional Movement Index) that’s more negative with a small DI- margin over the DI+, an ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) well in non-trending territory, and an RSI (Relative Strength Index) reading that’s miles away from oversold territory.

Hardly much to go by for technical traders, and an even more difficult one to classify, with the moves more consolidatory than bearish as of late, and a stalling bear trend only due to its longer-term channel. This means it doesn’t guarantee conformist strategies will always win out once there’s a move to the upper end of the channel that can offer consecutive weeks (or days) of gains. And that’s especially true with any fundamental event, should the earnings results opt to veer far from expectations.

Boeing Weekly Chart with key technical indicators

IG Client sentiment* and short interest for Boeing shares

As for short interest (according to shortsqueeze.com), it’s lower than a quarter ago when it was closer to 9 million shares, currently above 6.5 million shares representing over 1% of total floated shares.

When it comes to retail sentiment, it’s been extreme buy bias throughout this period, and little changed from 95% the last time around during the ’21 Q4 earnings preview when prices were around $210, with opportunities in February for fresh longs to close out with limited profit-taking, but where longs initiated at higher price levels are awaiting further upside movement to unwind.

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of the week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the 2021 Q4 earnings preview article published on January 24, 2022.