Coinbase’s Q4 earnings preview: What to expect
Coinbase is set to release its quarter four (Q4) 2024 financial results on 13 February 2025, after the US market closes.
When does Coinbase Inc report earnings?
Coinbase is set to release its quarter four (Q4) 2024 financial results on 13 February 2025, after the US market closes.
Coinbase’s Q4 2024 results – what to expect
- Revenue: US$1.74 billion vs US$954 million (Q4 2023), 82.2% growth year-on-year (YoY)
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.63 vs US$1.04 (Q4 2023), 57.0% growth YoY
Key highlights in the upcoming results are expected to feature robust double-digit growth across the company’s core business segments—transaction revenue and subscription & services. In its 3Q 2024 results, Coinbase missed both revenue and earnings estimates, so any upside surprises will be closely watched this time to restore investors’ confidence.
Mid-November crypto rally expected to boost trading activities
Coinbase’s earnings are heavily influenced by Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, which drive the majority of its trading revenue. Generally, rising prices in these assets lead to higher retail engagement, which translates to more trading activities and higher fees for Coinbase.
In Q4 2024, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged 48% and 28%, respectively, partly propelled by Donald Trump’s presidential win. His win has raised optimism about a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment and the prospects of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve.
According to CoinGecko, trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) soared 111.7% in Q4 compared to Q3. Given this surge, the market’s 37.1% projected increase in Coinbase’s transaction revenue appears conservative, raising the likelihood of an earnings beat.
Long-term revenue diversification in focus
In its Q3 2024 earnings call, Coinbase expressed caution regarding its Q4 subscription and services outlook, citing headwinds from a 10% decline in Ethereum prices in October (compared to the Q3 average) and lower interest rates. Since Coinbase earns fees from ETH staking rewards, a higher ETH price typically translates to larger staking rewards and increased revenue.
Although Ethereum has surged close to 70% post-US elections in early-November, the rally has since lost momentum, bringing prices back to their September-October 2024 range.
To reduce its reliance on volatile trading fees, Coinbase will need to demonstrate stronger growth in this segment. For Q4 2024, Coinbase’s subscription and services revenue is expected to grow 46.7% YoY, down from 66.3% in Q3 2024. Projections remain flat beyond Q4, indicating that investors may need more reassurances on long-term growth prospects.
Technical analysis
Coinbase’s share price appears range-bound in the near term, with a flatlined daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) signalling investors’ indecision, while its daily relative strength index (RSI) hovers around its midline. Bullish conviction may come from a break above the $305 level, where both a descending trendline of lower highs and a key horizontal resistance level may be overcome. Conversely, the $263.80 level will serve as a critical support confluence, aligning with a broader upward trendline that must hold in order to sustain the broader bullish structure.
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