Credit Suisse turmoil drives losses for UK bank stocks
The end of Credit Suisse as an independent institution has not provided much relief for stocks, and UK banks like Lloyds and Barclays have been under heavy pressure this morning.
Credit Suisse turmoil felt in UK bank shares
The regional banking crisis in the US leapt across the Atlantic last week to engulf venerable Swiss institution Credit Suisse.
Over the weekend discussions between Credit Suisse, UBS and the Swiss government ended with UBS taking over its Swiss peer, but with conditions that saw holders of the riskiest bonds wiped out. This move has likely prevented a much wider crisis in European banks, but the Monday open has been a volatile one, with equity markets suffering sharp initial losses.
Co-ordinated action from central banks saw dollar swap lines opened for the first time since March 2020 in order to provide liquidity to the financial system, but it looks as if this particular mechanism is not needed at the moment.
Outlook turns gloomier
However, bank stocks are essentially another way of looking at the outlook for the UK and the global economy. As a result of the past week, expectations for a recession have been brought back into 2023, having been pushed out into 2024 since the beginning of the year.
Crucially, talk of central banks having to cut rates before the end of the year has now returned too. Gloomier prospects for economic activity and for corporate and personal lending mean that banks could see activity slow while profit margins remain squeezed.
Lloyds share price – technical analysis
Lloyds has gone from its highest level in over three years to a four-month low. But while the shares briefly traded at 44p this morning, they have been able to hold the 200-day SMA so far.
If the shares can stabilise from here a bullish view may yet develop, but it would need a recovery above 48p and then above the 100-day SMA to provide a firm foundation.
Continued losses below 45p would bolster the short-term bearish view
Barclays share price – technical analysis
The losses have been more dramatic for Barclays. From 185p in January, the shares have nose-dived to 136p, and tested the 130p level that had been support last year. Gains that took four months to build have been wiped out in a month, in a classic ‘stairs up, lift down’ move.
The price is firmly below the 200-day MA, and will take time to carve out a low around current levels. The furious buying around 130p provides some hope that the losses can be stemmed.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Seize a share opportunity today
Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.
- Increase your market exposure with leverage
- Get spreads from just 0.1% on major global shares
- Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only
