EUR/GBP hovers above five-month low, AUD/USD above three-month low while USD/JPY rallies
Outlook on EUR/GBP, AUD/USD and USD/JPY as BoJ remains cautious regarding rate hike later this year.
EUR/GBP once more hovers above its five-month low
EUR/GBP's attempt to bounce off its £0.8514 five-month January low to Monday’s £0.8572 high was short-lived with the cross once again hovering above its January low.
Minor resistance now sits at the £0.855 December low and the 1 February high at £0.8559, followed by more significant resistance at Monday’s £0.8572 two-week high.
A now more likely fall through £0.8514 would engage the significant July-to-August lows at £0.8504 to £0.8493 below which lies the April 2021 low at £0.8472. A currently unlikely rise above £0.8572 would put the 9 January low at £0.8587 on the map, ahead of the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) at £0.8601 to £0.8623.
AUD/USD continues to range trades above its near three-month low
AUD/USD’s descent from its five-month December peak at $0.6871 has taken the cross to Monday’s low at $0.6469 before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its base rate at 4.35% as anticipated but hinted that a further rate hike may need to be made in order to keep inflation in check.
This led to a minor bounce to Wednesday’s $0.654 high in low volatility trading around which it now hovers. Further resistance is seen along the December-to-January downtrend line and 200-day SMA at $0.657 to $0.6573. While it isn’t overcome, further downside is probably in store.
A fall through $0.6469 would target the 11 October high at $0.6445, ahead of the August, early September and mid-November 2023 lows at $0.6365 to $0.6339.
USD/JPY rallies as Japanese current account surplus comes in below forecast
USD/JPY is heading back up towards its January and current February highs at ¥148.80 to ¥148.89 above which lurks the minor psychological ¥150.00 mark as the Japanese current account surplus comes in below expectations and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Kazuo Ueda re-iterates his cautious stance regarding a rate hike later this year. Immediate upside pressure should be maintained while Wednesday’s low at ¥147.62 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.
Below it the December-to-February uptrend line can be seen at ¥147.93 and at the 31 January ¥147.90 high. The medium-term uptrend will remain intact while the current February low at ¥145.90 holds.
Were a currently unexpected slip through ¥145.90 to be witnessed, though, the 55- and 200-day SMA at ¥145.58 to ¥144.86 could be reached.
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