EUR/USD, EUR/GBP are heading back down again while AUD/USD tries to recover

​​​EUR/USD weighs on March-to-April uptrend line

​Last week’s EUR/USD 13-month high at $1.1075, due to diminishing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike probabilities following much weaker-than-expected as US retail sales, took the cross down to its March-to-April uptrend line at $1.0938 which is currently being tested.

​A tumble through it and to below Monday’s $1.091 low would likely engage the $1.0832 to $1.0804 mid-February and 10 April lows which represent significant support for the recent uptrend.

​Minor resistance may be encountered around the $1.0929 late-March high and also at the $1.0973 early April high. Only a rise above the latter level would put the minor psychological $1.10 mark and the $1.1033 February peak back on the cards. Further up sit last week’s peak at $1.1075, ahead of the January 2022 low and early-March 2022 high at $1.1121 to $1.1122.

​EUR/GBP has been rejected by its £0.8865 late-March high

​EUR/GBP's rejection by its late-March high at £0.8865 is continuing with the cross expected to slide further still as UK unemployment data comes in slightly worse-than-expected at 3.8% (versus 3.7%) and the UK claimant count change at a much higher-than-expected 28.2K (versus -11.2K in January) with average hourly earnings rising by 5.9% in February instead of an expected 5.1%, pointing towards the possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) being seen.

​The currency pair thus trades back below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8831 and may drop further towards the £0.88 mark while the 13 April high at £0.8838 caps.

​AUD/USD recovers as Reserve Bank of Australia accesses outlook

​AUD/USD is seen to recover from Monday’s $0.6682 low as the Reserve Bank of Australia ((RBA) minutes showed that it held the cash rate steady at 3.6% during its April meeting as it wished to account for policy lags but that it would resume tightening should this be required.

​This boosted the Australian dollar and led it back towards the 200-day SMA at $0.6744, above which the 55-day SMA can be found at $0.6774. The area between the two moving averages may cap any further upside on Tuesday. Should this not be the case, last week’s high at $0.6806 should do so.

​A continuation of the recent sell-off and fall through this week’s low at $0.6682 would push the October-to-April uptrend line at $0.6642 back to the fore. Below it the 10 April low can be seen at $0.662.