CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: RBA levels to know

anonymous

Publication date : 2018-05-01T06:49:16+0100

ig_trading_floor_5

Source: Bloomberg

Technical Outlook: In my latest Weekly Technical Perspective we highlighted a break below multi-year uptrend support in the Aussie with the risk lower heading into the monthly close. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is on tap in just under an hour. I’m looking for near-term support at 7480-7500- a break below this level would validate the breakdown with such a scenario targeting the 1.618% extension at 7379 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 7327.

AUD/USD daily price chart

AUD/USD 240min price chart

Notes: A closer look at price action sees Aussie testing near-term downtrend support on building divergence. If we get a rebound on RBA look for resistance at 7634/44 backed by the April open at 7690- both areas of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries. Bearish invalidation stands at 7759.

Bottom line: IF Aussie is going to get a near-term recovery, this would be a good spot. Ultimately the break below the 2016 trendline does leave the broader risk lower while below basic channel resistance.

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +2.39 (70.5% of traders are long) – bearish reading

Traders have remained net-long since April 19^th; price has moved 2.4% lower since then

Long positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 22.2% higher from last week

Short positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 0.7% lower from last week

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Written by: Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Find articles by writer

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.

Find out more about

Trading forex
Forex CFD details
Learn to trade fx

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.

IG is a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in order to utilise their foreign investment allowance should the South African resident wish to open an offshore account with IG Markets Limited.

IG provides execution only services and enters into principal to principal transactions with its clients on IG’s prices. Such trades are not on exchange. IG Markets South Africa Limited is an authorised financial services provider (FSP No 41393). Whilst IG Markets South Africa Limited is a regulated FSP, CFDs issued by IG are not regulated by the FAIS Act as they are undertaken on a principal-to-principal basis.

IG Markets South Africa Limited is an authorised over-the-counter derivative provider and is regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium or any particular country outside South Africa and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Voted SA’s top CFD provider in Business Day Investors Monthly Annual Stockbroker Awards in 2012, best platform for Active Day Traders in 2013 and 2014, SA's best Online Broker in 2015 and 2017 and SA's best CFD provider in 2020 as well as SA's Top CFD Broker in 2021.