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FX levels to watch – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Fed minutes prompted a reversal in the dollar, which has interesting implications across the FX space. 

USD/JPY notes
Source: Bloomberg

GBP/USD lifted by the FOMC minutes

The services PMI number and dollar weakness after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes helped to push GBP/USD back to $1.25.

However, the price now needs to push through the descending hourly trendline off the highs from late March, which would imply a move back above $1.2520. Areas of short-term support are $1.2450 and then $1.2420, with the former a potential mark to watch for a bounce, given the rising trendline that comes into play from the 14 March low. 

GBP/USD price chart

EUR/USD getting ready to go up

A staunch defence of the $1.0635 level and renewed USD weakness lends credence to the idea that the euro is poised for a move higher.

A break above the $1.07 high from 31 March clears the way to $1.0750 and then $1.0780. On the daily chart, EUR/USD now needs to clear the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0863, and then move on through the late March high of $1.09.

EUR/USD price chart

USD/JPY looking bearish  

Further losses look likely for USD/JPY, after a reversal yesterday that left the pair close to key support at ¥110.11. Below this is the 200-day SMA (¥108.54), while downside targets from there would be ¥107.45 and then ¥105.53.

For now the pair is oversold intraday, so a bounce is possible, but as long as it remains below ¥111.50, the bearish outlook is preserved. A close above ¥111.50 would be needed to reverse the expectation of further losses.

USD/JPY price chart

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.