JSE Top 40 resource shares, broker ratings, price targets and trading view
The article below looks at JSE Top 40 resource counters, their broker ratings, price targets as well as possible trading opportunities within the sector.
JSE Top40 resource shares – Broker ratings and long term price targets
The below table highlights how JSE Top40 resource counters are currently viewed at an institutional (analyst) level.
The table highlights current analyst ratings and long term price targets (as polled by Refinitiv), relative to current prices, assuming a discount or premium to longer term valuations. The ratings and aggregated snapshots of these views on the respective shares are as of the 28th of June 2021.
| Company | LT Broker Rating | No. of Brokers | LT Target Price | Share Price | Discount / Premium to Target |
| AngloGold | HOLD | 11 | 396.4 | 266.03 | -32.89% |
| Gold Fields | BUY | 11 | 177.75 | 129.50 | -27.14% |
| Harmony | HOLD | 8 | 74.35 | 53.27 | -28.35% |
| Amplats | HOLD | 8 | 2138.86 | 1,634.54 | -23.58% |
| Impala Plats | BUY | 8 | 335.5 | 238.39 | -28.94% |
| Sibanye Stillwater | BUY | 9 | 89.7 | 59.19 | -34.01% |
| Anglo American Plc | BUY | 7 | 686.75 | 583.04 | -15.10% |
| BHP Group | BUY | 7 | 469.26 | 427.48 | -8.90% |
| Exxaro | BUY | 8 | 195.62 | 170.90 | -12.64% |
| Kumba Iron Ore | HOLD | 8 | 537.50 | 633.34 | 17.83% |
Gold Fields, Impala Platinum, Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo American Plc, The BHP Group and Exxaro Resources remain firmly in investor favour, all maintaining an average analyst rating of ‘buy’, while AngloGold, Harmony Gold, Anglo Platinum (Amplats) and Kumba Iron maintain ‘hold’ ratings in aggregate.
Gold and platinum counters currently trade at the largest discount to long term price targets, while most of the ‘diversified’ resource counters trade at narrower discounts. Kumba Iron Ore is the only share on the list which currently trades at a premium to long term price targets.
Sibanye Stillwater
The share price of Sibanye has recently declined from near term highs to a confluence of the 200 day simple moving average and lateral support. The price now looks to be reversing off the 5765 support level. The bullish price reversal is supported by the stochastic moving out of oversold territory. 6455 and 6880 are initial resistance targets from the move, while traders who are long might use a close below the 5450 level as a stop loss consideration for the trade.
Anglo Gold vs NewGold Issuer (long term pair trade)
Local gold mining shares have historically had a habit of underperforming sector benchmarks when in decline and outperforming when gaining. The below chart looks at locally listed gold mining counter AngloGold Ashanti and its relationship with NewGold Issuer, an exchange traded fund which tracks 1/100th of a troy ounce of gold in rand terms.
The pair considers a Long AngloGold position against a Short NewGold position. The net result of these combined trades looks for a 14.3% profit margin. A stop loss is considered of equal proportion to the expected gain.
A successful pair trade can be realized 1 of 3 ways:
1. The long position rises while the short position falls
2. The long position rises faster than the short position rises
3. The short position falls faster than the long position falls.
The blue line on the chart represents the AngloGold / Newgold ratio which recently traded more than 2 standard deviations below the mean (middle line). in turn a successful trade would require the ratio (blue line) to return back to the mean to meet the guided 14.3% profit target.
In summary
- Gold Fields, Impala Platinum, Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo American Plc, The BHP Group and Exxaro Resources all maintain an average analyst rating of ‘buy’
- AngloGold, Harmony Gold, Anglo Platinum (Amplats) and Kumba Iron maintain an average rating of ‘hold’
- Gold and platinum counters currently trade at the largest discount to long term price targets
- Kumba Iron Ore is the only share on the list which currently trades at a premium to long term price targets
- AngloGold Ashanti could be set to outperform industry benchmarks such as Newgold Issuer
- Sibanye Stillwater has formed a bullish price reversal at support
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Speculate on commodities
Trade commodity futures, as well as 27 commodity markets with no fixed expiries.1
- Wide range of popular and niche metals, energies and softs
- Spreads from 0.3 pts on Spot Gold, 2 pts on Spot Silver and 2.8 pts on Oil
- View continuous charting, backdated for up to five years
1In the case of all DFBs, there is a fixed expiry at some point in the future.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only
