Netflix Q1 earnings preview: what to expect as the streaming giant reports Thursday
Netflix reports Q1 2025 earnings on 17 April, with analysts eyeing revenue growth of 12% despite the company's decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers.
Netflix Q1 2025 key earnings expectations
Netflix is set to release its first-quarter (Q1) 2025 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, 17 April. Analysts anticipate Netflix will report revenue of $10.516 billion, marking a 12.23% year-over-year (YoY) increase, showing continued growth despite an increasingly competitive landscape.
Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to reach $5.73, up 8.55% from $5.28 in the same quarter last year. While this represents positive growth, it's worth noting this would be the company's slowest growth rate in seven quarters, potentially reflecting a maturing streaming market and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
Market watchers will be particularly focused on the company's operating margin, which has been expanding in recent quarters as content spend stabilises and the benefits of previous price increases flow through to the bottom line. The continued strength of this metric will be crucial for sustaining investor confidence.
The forex trading implications will also be important, as Netflix derives substantial revenue internationally. Currency fluctuations can significantly impact reported results, with a weaker greenback potentially increasing international revenue when converted back to US dollars.
Netflix's shift in reporting metrics
Notably, this earnings report marks a significant change in Netflix's approach to performance metrics. This will be the first quarter in which Netflix does not disclose its subscriber count, a metric it has traditionally highlighted as a key performance indicator.
The company announced this change a year ago, signalling a shift in focus toward engagement metrics and financial performance. At the end of 2024, Netflix reported 301.63 million global subscribers, but going forward, investors will need to assess the company's health through different metrics.
This strategic pivot reflects Netflix's evolution from a growth-focused disruptor to a more mature media company concerned with profitability and sustainable expansion. The trading platform community will be watching closely to see what alternative metrics Netflix emphasises to demonstrate its continued momentum.
Instead of subscriber numbers, Netflix is expected to highlight metrics such as viewing hours, retention rates, and average revenue per user (ARPU). These figures will provide valuable insight into how effectively Netflix is monetising its existing user base rather than simply growing it.
Analyst sentiment and recommendations
Despite economic tariff-related uncertainties, many analysts remain optimistic about Netflix's resilience in the streaming market. JPMorgan has labelled Netflix the "most resilient" company it tracks, citing strong subscriber engagement and a robust content library that continues to drive viewer loyalty.
Morgan Stanley also considers Netflix a "top pick," viewing recent stock dips as buying opportunities rather than causes for concern. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in Netflix's business model and its ability to navigate an increasingly competitive streaming landscape.
According to LSEG Data & analytics, 13 analyst have a ‘strong buy’ recommendation, 24 a ‘buy’ and 12 a ‘hold’ recommendation (as of 14/04/2025).
Netflix LSEG Data & analytics charts
Netflix has a TipRanks Smart Score of ’7 Neutral’ and is rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts with 30 ’buy’, 10 ‘hold’ and 1 ‘sell’ recommendation (as of 14/04/2025).
Netflix TipRanks Smart Score charts
Netflix technical analysis outlook
Netflix's stock has experienced notable volatility in recent months, trading at $918.29 ahead of earnings, down up to 19% from a February peak of $1,064.50. However, the broader picture remains positive, with shares having surged over 51% over the past 12 months, and trading up 3% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
From a technical perspective, the long-term uptrend will stay intact as long as the January and current April lows at $823.52-to-$821.10 hold on a weekly chart closing basis.
Netflix daily candlestick chart
For investors using trading signals to inform their decisions, understanding the company’s share price evolution will be essential for interpreting the significance of the Q1 results.
Netflix's strategic initiatives
Investors will be closely watching updates on Netflix's advertising-supported tier, which was introduced to attract price-sensitive consumers. This initiative is expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth in the coming years as Netflix expands its advertiser base and refines its ad targeting capabilities.
The company's nascent venture into live sports represents another significant strategic shift. Netflix's deal to broadcast NFL games marks its most substantial investment in live programming to date and signals an intention to compete more directly with traditional broadcasters and other streaming services that have already embraced sports content.
Content spending will remain a key focus area, with analysts expecting further details on how Netflix plans to balance investment in original programming with profitability goals. The company has historically spent billions on content creation, but has recently shown more discipline in this area.
International growth strategies, particularly in emerging markets where streaming penetration remains relatively low, will also be scrutinised. Netflix has been investing heavily in local-language content in markets like India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa, seeking to drive growth beyond saturated North American and European markets.
Competitive landscape challenges
The streaming wars continue to intensify, with competitors like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, and Apple TV+ all investing heavily in content and technology. Netflix's ability to retain its market leadership position in this environment will be a key focus for investors analysing the Q1 results.
Price increases implemented across various markets in late 2024 will be another area of attention. Analysts will look for indications of whether these hikes have led to increased churn or if Netflix has successfully retained subscribers despite asking them to pay more for the service.
The growth of its gaming initiative, launched in 2021, may also feature in the earnings discussion. While still a relatively small part of Netflix's overall business, the company has been steadily expanding its mobile gaming library and may share engagement metrics or future plans for this vertical.
Historical data shows that Netflix shares often experience significant price movements following quarterly reports.
For those looking to trade shares, understanding this volatility pattern around Netflix earnings releases can be valuable for developing informed trading strategies.
What to watch in Netflix's Q1 earnings call
Beyond the headline financial figures, several qualitative aspects of Netflix's earnings call will merit close attention. Management's commentary on content performance will be particularly important, especially regarding recent high-profile releases and their impact on viewer engagement.
Forward guidance will be crucial, especially given the economic uncertainty that continues to characterise 2025. Any adjustment to revenue or profit projections could significantly impact the market's reaction to the earnings report, regardless of the Q1 performance itself.
Updates on the company's efforts to crack down on password sharing, which began in earnest in 2023, will also be of interest. This initiative was designed to convert non-paying users into subscribers, and investors will want evidence that it continues to drive revenue growth.
Regional performance breakdowns will provide insight into where Netflix is seeing the strongest growth or facing the greatest challenges. Particular attention will be paid to performance in Asia-Pacific markets, which have been identified as key growth regions.
How to trade Netflix earnings
- Do your research on Netflix's recent performance, competitive position, and the streaming industry's outlook before making any trading decisions.
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest based on your timeframe and risk tolerance. Spread betting and CFD trading allow you to speculate on price movements in either direction.
- Open an account with us if you don't already have one.
- Search for "Netflix" or the ticker "NFLX" in our platform or app.
- Place your trade, ensuring you have appropriate risk management strategies in place, such as stop losses, to protect against unexpected market movements.
Netflix earnings releases typically generate significant market volatility, creating opportunities for traders. However, this volatility also presents risks that should be carefully managed. Using a demo account to practise your strategy before committing real capital can be a prudent approach.
For those preferring a longer-term approach, our share dealing service allows you to build a diversified portfolio that might include Netflix alongside other technology or entertainment companies, potentially providing more balanced exposure to the streaming sector.
Remember that while earnings reports often trigger short-term price movements, a company's long-term performance is typically driven by fundamental business strength and industry trends rather than quarterly fluctuations.