Trade growth indicator remains at nine-year low, WTO says
The World Trade Organisation’s quarterly indicator showed that global trade growth is likely to remain weak in the first half of 2019 as a myriad of macroeconomic headwinds increase economic uncertainty.
The latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) outlook indicator showed that trade growth is likely to remain weak into the second quarter of 2019.
The new WTOI reading is 96.3, exactly as it was in the previous release in February this year, maintaining the weakest level since 2010.
Trade growth may weaken further as US-China trade negotiations turn sour
In their April trade forecast, WTO economists estimated that merchandise trade volume growth would fall to 2.6% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018, before rebounding to 3.0% in 2020.
Any rebound in 2020 would depend on reduced trade tensions and/or improved macroeconomic performance.
‘The outlook for trade could worsen further if heightened trade tensions are not resolved or if macroeconomic policy fails to adjust to changing circumstances,’ the WTO said.
Macroeconomic headwinds threaten global trade growth
The UK is no closer to breaking the Brexit deadlock and finding a resolution on its future relationship with the EU and the US President Donald Trump continues to threaten to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods.
For global trade growth to pick up in the second half of the year, businesses and investors will be hoping that US and Chinese officials will find a way to deescalate tensions and the UK can finally provide clarity on how it plans to leave the EU.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
See an opportunity to trade?
Go long or short on more than 17,000 markets with IG.
Trade CFDs on our award-winning platform, with low spreads on indices, shares, commodities and more.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only
