US Elections update: Votes, Congress & how markets are faring
As of 9am, early indications are showing that Joe Biden has 224 electoral votes against Donald Trumps 214.
Electoral Votes update
As of 9am, early indications are showing that Joe Biden has 224 electoral votes against Donald Trumps 214. However Trump is leading across states incomplete, with a further 81 electoral votes against Biden’s 20. If elections were concluded as they currently stand, Donald Trump would have secured 284 electoral votes where only 270 are needed for victory.
Congress
It now appears highly unlikely that the Democrats can secure both the House and Senate within Congress. Should the Democrats again realise a majority in the House, while Republicans realise a majority in the Senate, a bipartisan bureaucracy is likely to remain, making the passage of legislature all the more difficult. A recent example of this is the impasse relating to the a second round of coronavirus related stimulus aid for Americans which has been in discussion for months.
A split Congress does create further uncertainty in markets which is likely to reflect in increased volatility.
Markets
As the votes have started to reveal these possible outcomes, we have seen the US dollar starting to claw back strength. This is evident in the sharp reversal on the US Dollar basket which currently trades at session highs. At home this is evidenced by the rand fast handing back gains achieved yesterday against the greenback.
The renewed dollar strength is weighing on precious metal prices such as gold and platinum at present. A Trump victory would also suggest more trade angst, particularly with China. This is reflecting in industrial metal prices trading mostly lower this morning as well.
S&P 500 futures, a large scale gauge of the US equity market, still trades in positive territory, although has fallen significantly off its session highs.
Nasdaq futures are outperforming major US index benchmarks, which is in further support of the Trump lead at the polls. A Biden victory has been suggestive of increased taxation for a number of these global tech stocks and in turn, as Trumps probability of retaining the presidency grows, it has bode better for these counters in the very short term.
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