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US Weekly Report: Traders eye new record closing high for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to approach new record closing highs this week, as inflation and growth scares (including recent US CPI, PPI and retail sales data) have been largely absorbed by the market.

Trading charts Source: Adobe images
Trading charts Source: Adobe images

Traders eye new record closing high for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to approach new record closing highs this week, as inflation and growth scares (including recent US consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data) have been largely absorbed by the market. Attention has shifted to broader catalysts, such as the potential for Ukraine-Russia peace talks and delayed US tariff action. While this suggests that market volatility may be backloaded to Q2, where US trade findings that could still trigger reciprocal actions, investors are capitalising on near-term momentum to push for further gains. Surprisingly, despite US indices nearing record levels, sentiment indicators (such as the NAAIM Exposure Index, Fear & Greed, and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey) remain neutral, signalling room for sentiments to improve further.

Look-ahead: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes

At its January meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the Fed funds rate on hold at 4.25% - 4.5%, while signalling a cautious approach on future rate adjustments. The basis for the rate hold may stem from persistent inflationary pressures, while ongoing “solid” economic expansion allows policymakers to remain patient in easing. The upcoming Fed minutes are expected to reinforce the case for rates to be kept on hold for longer, validating market expectations for the next rate cut only in July. The recent upside surprise in US inflation data further supports this outlook.

S&P 500: Buyers eyeing for break to new record closing high

The S&P 500 has been trading within a narrow range in recent weeks, but a decisive move could be on the horizon, as buyers may target a fresh record closing high this week. Despite negative headlines—including DeepSeek, hotter inflation, weaker retail sales and US tariffs—the formation of higher lows signals buyers' intent to push higher. A likely breakout above the 6,125 level could open the door to the 6,420 level next, which aligns with a key Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has been well-defended above its midline, reinforcing the prevailing bullish bias.

Key levels:

  • R2: 6,420
  • R1: 6,125
  • S1: 5,942
  • S2: 5,700

US 500 Cash chart

US 500 Cash
US 500 Cash

Source: IG charts

Sector performance

Sector performance over the past week was mixed among the Magnificent Seven stocks. Nvidia (+6.9%) and Apple (+7.5%) led the technology sector to the top of the performance table, while Tesla lagged, falling 1.6% and weighing on the consumer discretionary sector. Despite negative headlines on higher US inflation data and weaker retail sales, market participants found reassurance in the underlying details, which still points to a broader trend of disinflation and a soft landing. Growth stocks have regained their shine over value in recent weeks, with the growth-value ratio on track to reach its highest level since January 2022. This has brought the S&P 500 within striking distance of a new record closing high, with market participants poised to watch for a breakout this week.

SPX sector returns: One-week and one-month
SPX sector returns: One-week and one-month

Source: Refinitiv

SPX sector returns: One-month and year-to-date
SPX sector returns: One-month and year-to-date

Source: Refinitiv

Sector ETFs summary
Sector ETFs summary

Source: Refinitiv
*Note: The data is from 11th – 17th February 2025.

Top 15 winners and losers
Top 15 winners and losers

Source: Refinitiv
*Note: The data is from 11th – 17th February 2025.

Top stocks by sectors
Top stocks by sectors

Source: Refinitiv
*Note: The data is from 11th – 17th February 2025.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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