CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

How much further can the pound rise?

The pound is the best performing G10 currency in 2018, but can that continue? Martin Arnold, of EFX Securities, is cautious seeing GBP/JPY as the main opportunity.

anonymous

Publication date : 2018-01-24T17:50:06+0000

GBP

Source: Bloomberg

The pound is leading the pack of G10 currencies so far in 2018, having broken through $1.40. It is also gaining against the yen, but treading water versus the euro.

The pound is now just under the $1.41 level against the dollar, having regained half the dip on the back of the Brexit vote in June 2016.

Will GBP/USD reach $1.50?

Martin Arnold, FX and macro strategist at ETF Securities, is cautious about a GBP/USD climb to $1.50, saying that if the softer retail sales numbers follow through into gross domestic product (GDP) figures, Mark Carney (the Bank of England governor) may be reluctant to be more hawkish, which would bring downward pressure on sterling.

Video poster image

He is more positive about GBP/JPY than cable, and expects the pound to tick higher against euro.

The fact that sterling’s behaviour is tied to volatility and is low at the moment, is a positive for the UK currency, Arnold said.

‘Mrs May seems to be getting her house more in order over Brexit, and there is a more positive tone from some EU leaders over the negotiations,’ he added.

The prime minister had an embarrassing December. After briefings that a Brexit divorce deal was about to be done and how much it would cost, the plan fell through. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland, who have a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the Conservatives (giving them a working majority in Parliament), had not seen the draft text and were not happy with its implications for the Province and the Irish border. In the end, an outline deal was done just in time for EU ministers to allow negotiations to move to the next phase – discussions over the future relationship between the two countries.

A mutually good Brexit deal for the UK and the EU would be more positive for sterling, the FX strategist felt.

EUR/GBP at the mercy of ECB speculation

Though ahead of that, Arnold expects slight movement upwards for EUR/GBP. There have been very good economic numbers out of Europe, and investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to be quite hawkish in 2018. But, Arnold thinks investors are getting ahead of themselves on how aggressive the ECB will actually be.

GBP/JPY likely to gain ground

As to the possibility of GBP/JPYgaining ground, Arnold said the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was very much still waiting to see, adding that inflation expectations in Japan were still very depressed.

Find out more about why Brexit is important to traders.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Find articles by writer

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.

IG is a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in order to utilise their foreign investment allowance should the South African resident wish to open an offshore account with IG Markets Limited.

IG provides execution only services and enters into principal to principal transactions with its clients on IG’s prices. Such trades are not on exchange. IG Markets South Africa Limited is an authorised financial services provider (FSP No 41393). Whilst IG Markets South Africa Limited is a regulated FSP, CFDs issued by IG are not regulated by the FAIS Act as they are undertaken on a principal-to-principal basis.

IG Markets South Africa Limited is an authorised over-the-counter derivative provider and is regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium or any particular country outside South Africa and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Voted SA’s top CFD provider in Business Day Investors Monthly Annual Stockbroker Awards in 2012, best platform for Active Day Traders in 2013 and 2014, SA's best Online Broker in 2015 and 2017 and SA's best CFD provider in 2020 as well as SA's Top CFD Broker in 2021.