The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
22-26 July
Local
Despite a stronger rand, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% this last week, citing persistent inflation risks and high global interest rates.
While inflation expectations are gradually aligning closer to the 4.5% target, administered prices and services inflation remain problematic. The MPC aims to stabilize inflation at the midpoint of the target band to improve economic prospects and reduce borrowing costs, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and prudent fiscal management.
The Reserve Bank noted that South Africa's economic performance in the first half of the year was underwhelming, with a slight contraction of 0.1% in the first quarter and modest growth of 0.6% anticipated for the second quarter. Medium-term growth is expected to be somewhat faster, aided by a more reliable electricity supply and improved logistics, but still below historical averages of around 2%. Inflation remains a concern, though the outlook has improved, with headline consumer price inflation projected at 4.9% for the year, dipping below 4.5% in the coming quarters.
International
US benchmarks have started to correct from recent highs in a tech sector led selloff. Technology counters have found some excuse for profit taking on the suggestion of more trade uncertainty between the US and China with an increased likelihood of a Republican / Trump election win post the recent assassination attempt.
The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, following a cut in June, as expected due to ongoing inflationary concerns, particularly from the labor market. Market expectations indicate that the ECB is likely to implement two additional 25 basis point cuts this year, in September and December, while pausing in October.
The new week will see manufacturing and services PMI data releases from Europe and the US. Traders will want to take note of US Advance GDP data scheduled for Thursday and Core PCE inflation data scheduled for Friday.
The Rand
The rand has weakened off its best levels of the year in a risk off trade environment. Weaker key export commodity prices and a slightly more dovish South African Reserve Bank (SARB) would have added further weight to the domestic currency short term.
Commodities
Copper and iron ore prices have led industrial metals lower this last week, with the decline being attributed to the absence of new stimulus measures from the conclusion of China's key policy meeting on Friday. The news suggests dampened demand prospects in the world's largest metal consumer as the Chinese economy struggles to sustain strong growth momentum.
Gold moved into new high territory this last week, supported by a softer dollar which has been pricing in a nearing rate cut in the US and the prospect of a Trump election win.
Companies
Anglo American Platinum Ltd: in its 2Q24 production and trading update, guided that total Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) production decreased by 2.0% to 921,000 ounces. The company expects HEPS to be 15.0% to 25.0%, lower as compared with 2,984c recorded in the prior year.
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd: in its 1H24 trading and production update, guided that total production decreased by 2.0% to 18.5Mt, in line with Transnet’s rail performance. The company expects HEPS to be between 24.0% to 29.0%, lower as compared with R30.04 recorded in the prior year.
Cie Financiere Richemont S.A.: 1Q24 results, showed total sales declined 1.0% from the same period of the preceding year. Growth was recorded in all regions except for Asia Pacific, where sales contracted by 18.0%.
Northam Platinum Holdings: in its FY24 production update, revealed that total refined 4E metal production increased 5.3% to 891,721oz.
Company announcements
Date |
Company Name |
Event Type |
22 July 2024 |
Anglo American Platinum Ltd |
Earnings Release |
22 July 2024 |
Famous Brands |
Ex Dividend |
23 July 2024 |
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd |
Earnings Release |
24 July 2024 |
Vodacom Group Ltd |
Trading Statement Release |
24 July 2024 |
Lewis Group |
Ex Dividend |
24 July 2024 |
Tsogo Sun Group |
Ex Dividend |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
24 July 2024 |
9:15am |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
24 July 2024 |
9:15am |
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
49.6 |
24 July 2024 |
9:30am |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.5 |
24 July 2024 |
9:30am |
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
53.1 |
24 July 2024 |
10:00am |
ZAR |
Inflation Rate m/m |
0.2% |
24 July 2024 |
10:00am |
ZAR |
Inflation Rate y/y |
5.2% |
24 July 2024 |
10:30am |
GBP |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
50.9 |
24 July 2024 |
10:30am |
GBP |
Flash Services PMI |
52.1 |
24 July 2024 |
3:45pm |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.6 |
24 July 2024 |
3:45pm |
USD |
Flash Services PMI |
55.3 |
25 July 2024 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
25 July 2024 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI y/y |
4.6% |
25 July 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.4% |
25 July 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|
26 July 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
26 July 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
66.0 |
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