The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

25-29 November

The Rand

S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of South Africa's debt outlook to "positive" from "stable" marks an important shift in international confidence, primarily driven by improved political stability under the GNU (Government of National Unity). This positive assessment initially strengthened the rand to below R18 against the US dollar.

However, this momentum proved temporary as multiple external factors intervened: increased risk aversion towards emerging market currencies, declining prices in South Africa's key metal and mineral exports, and persistent US dollar strength. The dollar's dominance continues to be supported by safe-haven flows into US treasuries, particularly as markets adjust to expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer, rather than seeing the sharp cuts previously anticipated. These combined factors have pushed the rand back above the R18/USD level, highlighting how global market dynamics can quickly overshadow positive domestic developments.

Commodities

Oil prices have shown signs of recovery over the past week, despite remaining negative for November overall. This rebound has been attributed to two main factors: reports of Chinese stockpiling taking advantage of lower prices, and increasing geopolitical tensions.

The industrial metals sector presents a more concerning picture, with copper, often viewed as a key indicator of economic health, remaining negative for the month and showing flat performance over the week. The broader industrial metals market has faced challenges due to heightened global tensions and tariff threats, which have dampened growth prospects and demand outlook.

Geopolitical tensions have escalated significantly, with Russia launching a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine's Dnipro city on Thursday, marking a serious escalation in the 33-month conflict. This development has triggered risk-off sentiment across financial markets, particularly impacting metal prices. Adding to the market pressure are concerns about potential tariffs on Chinese products, which further weaken the demand outlook for metals.

In contrast, gold has demonstrated strength over the past week, benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid intensifying Russia-Ukraine tensions. Notably, gold's rise occurred despite the U.S. dollar reaching a 13-month high, suggesting that safe-haven demand is strong enough to lift both assets simultaneously.

Companies

Investec Plc: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS to have declined 47.3% to 35.30p from the same period of the prior year.

Mr Price Group Limited: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS rose 6.7% to 467.70c from the same period of the prior year.

Southern Sun Limited: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS to have increased to 23.80c, from 17.60c in the prior year’s comparative period.

Lewis Group Limited: 1H25 results showed diluted EPS to have increased to 531.70c, from 347.60c in the prior year’s comparative period.

Reinet Investments S.C.A.: 1H24 results, showed that total income increased to EUR276.00mn from EUR118.00mn posted in the corresponding period of the previous year. The net asset value as at 30 September 2024 reflects an increase of EUR407.00mn or 6.6% from EUR6.18bn as at 31 March 2024

Momentum Group Limited: in its 1Q25 operating update, guided that recurring premiums increased to R1.07bn from R1.00bn recorded in the previous year. Moreover, single premiums increased by 3.0% to R15.68bn. Additionally, the company’s sales, as measured by the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP), increased by 5% to R20.70bn, driven by continued growth in life annuities new business volumes from Momentum Investments.

Ninety One Plc: 1H25 results, showed diluted EPS of 7.80p, which compares with 8.90p recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.

RFG Holdings Limited: FY24 results showed diluted EPS increased 18.1% from the prior year.

Old Mutual Limited: in its 3Q24 operational update, revealed that Life APE sales advanced to R10.41bn from R9.85bn recorded in the previous year. Gross written premiums rose by 7.4% to R20.74bn.

Coronation Fund Managers Limited: in its annual results for the year ended 30 September 2024, showed diluted EPS to have increased to 630.50c, from 182.90c recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Naspers Limited: in its trading statement for the for the period ended 30 September 2024, expects HEPS to be between 351.00 US cents and 371.00 US cents, which compares with 281.00 US cents in the prior year.

Telkom SA SOC Limited: 1H25 results showed diluted EPS to have increased by 10.5% from the prior year’s comparative period.

Astral Foods Limited: results for the year ended 30 September 2024, showed diluted EPS stood at 1,939c, which compares with a loss per share of 1,333c in the prior year.

PPC Limited: 1H25 results showed diluted EPS to have declined to 22.00c, from 24.00c in the prior year’s comparative period.

Sirius Real Estate Limited: 1H25 showed diluted EPS to have increased to 3.87c, from 2.67c in the prior year’s comparative period.