The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
27-31 January
Local
Data released from Statistics South Africa (STATSSA) this last week suggests a mixed economic picture with challenges in mining production offset by strong retail performance and moderate inflation levels.
A summary of these key economic indicators is as follows:
Mining Production (November 2024):
1. Overall Mining Production:
- Decreased 0.9% year-on-year
- Major declines in gold (-11.5%), diamonds (-11.4%), iron ore (-3.8%), and coal (-1.6%)
- Positive growth in PGMs (+4.0%) and chromium ore (+15.6%)
- Seasonally adjusted production decreased 0.2% month-on-month
2. Mineral Sales:
- Increased 8.1% year-on-year at current prices
- Strong performance in gold sales (+93.4%)
- Modest growth in coal (+8.5%) and PGMs (+4.3%)
- Significant decline in iron ore sales (-28.2%)
Retail Trade (November 2024):
1. Overall Performance:
- Real retail sales increased 7.7% year-on-year
- Seasonally adjusted sales grew 0.8% month-on-month
- Three-month growth of 5.1% compared to previous year
2. Key Retail Sectors:
- Strong growth in general dealers (+11.9%)
- Good performance in textiles/clothing (+9.5%)
- Decline in hardware/paint/glass (-4.3%)
Inflation (December 2024):
- Annual consumer price inflation at 3.0%, up from 2.9% in November
- Monthly CPI increase of 0.1%
International
China announced a significant market intervention plan on Thursday, with financial regulators introducing measures to direct substantial investment from state-owned insurance companies into the stock market. The initiative, coordinated by six financial regulatory bodies including the securities regulator, represents the government's latest effort to stabilize and support the Chinese stock market.
In Trump's first few official days in office he has once again suggested options which signal significant shifts in American foreign and economic policy. His administration looks to be committing to aggressive tariff policies aimed at redirecting manufacturing to the US and generating treasury revenue through import duties. The president did however soften implied stance on Chinese imports after a chat with the regions president Xi Jinping which has eased sentiment somewhat.
The Rand
The rand has been a short term beneficiary of a softer dollar and a risk on trade environment. Higher pricing in key export metals such as gold, copper and iron ore found directional impetus from the weaker dollar as well as news of further stimulus from China to boost the ZAR.
While the USD/ZAR remains in a longer term uptrend (dollar strength / rand weakening), in the short to medium term we are seeing a correction of that trend. The ZAR on Friday was trading at its best levels in a month against the greenback. The currency pair is now testing the R18.30/$ mark, which if breached, considers R18/$ as a feasible near term target.
Commodities
Trumps call for lower interest rates and a softer trade tariff rhetoric has helped soften the dollar over the last week, to help lift metal prices, most notably gold. The precious yellow metal now trades just short of all-time high territory.
The US president did also suggest increasing fossil fuel productivity and call for lower oil prices in the week gone by. Oil prices have in turn started to retreat from short term highs losing roughly 3% over the last five days.
Companies
Sasol Limited: in its production and sales performance metrics for the six months ended 31 December 2024, reported that mining production declined to 15.00m tonnes from 15.10m tonnes in the prior year. In Mozambique, natural gas production increased by 2.0% as compared with the prior year. Total refined production from Secunda Operations (SO) declined to 13.50kt from 14.80kt recorded in the prior year. Sales revenue from Chemicals segment increased by 1.0%, while sales volumes declined to 1,668kt from 1,733kt recorded in the previous year.
Super Group Limited: in its trading update for the six months ended 31 December 2024, it expects EPS to have declined be between 100.00c and 114.00c, from 142.80c in the prior year.
Cashbuild Limited: in its 2Q25 operational update, guided that group revenue increased by 6.0% from the prior year’s comparative period.
Mr Price Group Limited: in its 3Q24 trading update, guided that group retail sales climbed by 10.6% to R14.60bn and comparable store sales rose 6.3%.
Clicks Group Limited: its trading update for the 20 weeks ended 12 January 2025, guided that group turnover increased by 8.1% to R18.20bn, while retail sales increased by 8.7% and sales in comparable stores increased by 5.9%, as compared with the previous year.
Company announcements
Date |
Company Name |
Event Type |
27 January 2025 |
Rebosis Property Fund Ltd |
Earnings Release |
30 January 2025 |
MIX Telematics Ltd |
Earnings Release |
31 January 2025 |
Hudaco Industries Ltd |
Earnings Release |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
27 January 2025 |
3:30am |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.1 |
28 January 2025 |
5:00pm |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
104.7 |
29 January 2025 |
4:15pm |
GBP |
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
|
29 January 2025 |
9:00pm |
USD |
Federal Funds Rate |
4.50% |
29 January 2025 |
9:00pm |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
29 January 2025 |
9:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
|
30 January 2025 |
3:15pm |
EUR |
Main Refinancing Rate |
3.15% |
30 January 2025 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI m/m |
0% |
30 January 2025 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI y/y |
-0.1% |
30 January 2025 |
1:00pm |
ZAR |
Interest Rate Decision |
7.75% |
30 January 2025 |
3:15pm |
EUR |
Monetary Policy Statement |
|
30 January 2025 |
3:30pm |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
3.1% |
30 January 2025 |
3:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
223K |
30 January 2025 |
3:45pm |
GBP |
ECB Press Conference |
|
31 January 2025 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.5% |
31 January 2025 |
3:30pm |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
31 January 2025 |
2:00pm |
ZAR |
Balance of Trade |
R34.7B |
31 January 2025 |
3:30pm |
USD |
Employment Cost Index q/q |
0.8% |
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