‘Fed first rate cut to come in H2’ – Bensignor

(AI Video Summary)

Discussing the latest economic data

In this IGTV interview video, Rick Bensignor, Founder & Managing Partner of Bensignor Investment Strategies, talks with Angeline Ong about how the market responded to the latest economic data. He explains that even though the numbers were in line with expectations, the market initially reacted negatively. However, the losses were quickly reversed, showing that the market is back to where it was before the data was released. Bensignor believes that it's now in a similar position and doesn't expect any major changes.

Rate cut possibilities

Ong then asks Bensignor about the possibility of a rate cut in June. He explains that earlier in the year, traders were expecting seven rate cuts, but he and Ong thought this was too high. They lowered their expectations to four or five cuts. Bensignor now thinks that the timing of the cuts might be delayed even further, possibly to the second half of the year. He predicts that there might be only a few cuts, if any, and expects around three cuts in the fall.

Discussing gold trends

Next, they discuss the topic of gold. Bensignor suggests that unless there's a significant drop in the price or a sustained new high, he would not suggest buying gold. He points out that even though futures briefly reached a new high a few months ago, the actual gold price did not follow, which could indicate that the price increase was artificial. Bensignor believes that if the futures market goes above $2,100 and stays there, it could be a good indicator for further price increases, with a target range of $2,400 to $2,500. Otherwise, he expects gold to trade around $2,000 plus or minus $100.

Discussing Bitcoin trends

They also touch on Bitcoin. Bensignor reveals that he recently sold some of his Bitcoin investments when the price was around $50,000, after doubling his investment since last summer. He explains that the popularity of Bitcoin ETFs has led to a huge influx of money into Bitcoin, which has exceeded the trading volume of popular stock ETFs. Although Bensignor mentions the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 or even $200,000, he emphasises the speculative nature of the investment and the importance of being disciplined and knowing when to exit before it becomes a risky investment.

Overall, Bensignor suggests that the market's reaction to the economic data was not as bad as expected and that the rate cuts might be delayed. He advises caution and discipline when it comes to investments in both gold and Bitcoin.