Where to next for the FTSE 100?: Year-end and 2025 forecast
Technical analysis FTSE 100 year-end and 2025 forecast, including key levels to watch out for.
UK autumn budget and higher global yields weigh on FTSE 100
The UK autumn budget with its £40bn tax increase, £28 billion annual borrowing and £70 billion spending boost for 2026-27 has led to a rise in UK borrowing costs. Both the 10- and 30-year Gilt yields rallied to one-year highs this week and dampened demand for stocks.
The FTSE 100's fall through its 8,150 September low following Wednesday’s UK autumn budget has also taken the index to below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 8,100 with the late July low at 8,056, the tentative April-to-October uptrend line at 8,055, February 2023 peak at 8,047 and the psychological 8,000 mark representing a possible downside target zone.
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
A possibly steeper decline may take the FTSE 100 all the way down to its August low at 7,916.
Year-end 2024 target 8,200-to-8,300
Provide the FTSE 100 August trough at 7,916 underpins on a weekly chart closing basis, the FTSE 100 is expected to gradually head back up towards the 8,200-to-8,300 region as it enters the seasonally usually positive end to the year. The major August-to-October sideways trading phase between 8,169 and 8,414 is not expected to be exceeded this year, however, but may be overcome in 2025.
FTSE 100 weekly candlestick chart
Minor resistance at the bottom of the wide 8,169-to-8,414 zone can be spotted at September-to-early October lows at 8,169-to-8,184.
For the bulls to be back in control a rise and daily chart close above the mid-October high at 8,395 would need to be seen. Such a bullish reversal currently looks highly unlikely, though.
What would a fall through the August low mean?
In case of the August low at 7,916 giving way, a significant long-term top would be formed with the July 2023-to-March 2024 highs at 7,785-to-7,687 being targeted in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
2025 forecast
As long as no fall through the August low at 7,916 occurs, the 500+ point wide April-to-October sideways trading range, is expected to be re-integrated as early as the first quarter of 2025.
Towards the middle part of next year another attempt at reaching the 8,500 mark could be made and, if successful, the 8,700-to-8,800 region be reached by end of 2025 as investors believe that the UK might have started to turn the corner and begins growing more substantially again following the autumn budget.
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